07:38 AM EDT, 10/05/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg upgraded Evonik Industries (EVK.F) to hold from sell and raised its price target, saying a buyer for the company is "in the wings" following exploratory takeover discussions with fellow German chemicals company BASF (BAS.F). "Our Sell thesis on Evonik was predicated on further earnings downgrades due to commoditisation pressures in methionine and other areas of the portfolio. The price increases associated with the Asian feedstock disruptions from the Iran conflict have temporarily reduced the pressure on parts of the portfolio, including methionine and crosslinkers. Yet, even if methionine prices have started to fall in recent months, BASF's interest in Evonik as a takeover target is likely to provide a floor to shares, in our view, particularly if reporting on discussions continues over the coming months," according to a note released Monday. The research firm expects BASF to return with a higher per-share bid of between 24 euros and 25 euros, after Evonik turned down its initial reported 22.15 euro-per-share proposal. Analysts added that a price of 25.3 euros per share would value Evonik at 8x 2027 EV/EBITDA, in line with BASF's own multiple. "For Evonik and anchor shareholder RAG Foundation (RAG), engaging with BASF offers several advantages. It insulates the Evonik share from a downturn in earnings after the temporary earnings boost from price rises resulting from the Iran conflict of 2027 ends," Berenberg said. The stock's price target was raised to 20 euros from 15.50 euros. Berenberg also trimmed its EPS estimates for 2026 to 2028, partly reflecting recent declines in methionine prices. Sales and EBIT forecasts were also cut across the three-year period.

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