According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin market showed significant structural differentiation between October 4 and October 5. The core conflict focused on the contraction of futures risk exposure and the contrarian support of spot buying. The “Market Pulse” report published by Glassnode revealed this macro trend: although enthusiasm for leverage in the derivatives market has cooled down, cash inflows at the spot level are providing a bottom buffer for prices. This divergence indicates that market sentiment is shifting from simply leverage-driven to a more complex process of rebalancing supply and demand.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, there is a clear trend of deleveraging in the derivatives market. The size of open positions was drastically reduced from US$38 billion to US$36.6 billion, a drop of US$1.4 billion. However, this reduction in scale was not accompanied by a complete decline in bullish sentiment. Instead, the cost of bullish financing climbed from $926,400 to $1.5 million, indicating that the market's demand for bullish perpetual contracts is still strong. The number of unclosed contracts alone is not enough to fully assess the vulnerability of positions, and a deep deconstruction is needed in conjunction with the level of leverage and collateral conditions.
At the same time, the share of active capital rose in the range of 18.9% to 19.5%. The indicator is based on the three-month time window defined by Glassnode in the March 2025 report, and is calculated using the 'actual market capitalization age range', that is, the price is set according to the last transaction price of the currency and the age is reset, thus reflecting changes in the weight of newer currencies in the economic structure. The change in the supply ratio is also critical. The supply ratio between short-term holders and long-term holders rose from 13.7% to 14.2%. This value means that every 100 units of long-term supply corresponds to approximately 14.2 units of short-term supply. Glassnode adjusted the average holding group time using 155 days as a benchmark value and excluded exchange balances. The data showed that newer cryptocurrency groups tend to sell quickly when volatility is high, and the increase in their share directly enhances the price sensitivity of the market.
The cash flow in the spot market provides another dimension of verification. The change in cumulative trading volume (difference between buying and selling volume) was reversed from a negative $102.8 million to a positive $33.2 million. The improvement in this indicator intuitively reflects the increase in buyers' power. Although it cannot directly quantify the capital size of new investors, continued positive net inflows are a key sign of the market's ability to absorb new supply.
Notably, this supporting effect at the spot level contrasts sharply with the reduction in the nominal size of derivatives, indicating that market participants are hedging or replacing part of their futures exposure through spot purchases, thus maintaining relative price stability as a whole.
However, this balance is extremely delicate, as the expansion of the short-term holder base means that the potential base of selling pressure is increasing, and any external shock could trigger the rapid withdrawal of these sensitive funds.
Looking ahead, the October market data revealed a fragile balance: the reduction in the nominal size of derivatives reduced the risk of systemic liquidation, but the recent rise in the proportion of active capital and continued buying behavior in the spot market have made holders' response sensitivity the biggest source of uncertainty.
If spot buying can continue to absorb new supply, market fragility will be effectively mitigated; conversely, if selling pressure resumes and holders' profits deteriorate, the market will face greater downward pressure. Therefore, the next trend will depend on whether spot demand can actually withstand the selling pressure that short-term holders may release. This is a new round of supply and demand tests facing the market following the adjustment of the leverage cycle.