NuScale Power (SMR) is back in focus after fresh attention on its fully certified U.S. small modular reactor design, new progress with utility and international partners, and a recent capital raise that extended its funding runway.
NuScale Power’s recent headlines appear to have reignited interest, with a 1-day share price return of 4.43% and 7-day share price return of 3.35%, even though the 30-day share price return is down 17.32% and the year-to-date share price return is down 50.83%. In contrast, the 3-year total shareholder return of 40.46% differs markedly from a 1-year total shareholder return that has fallen 79.55%, suggesting momentum has swung sharply as investors reassess both the growth opportunity and the risks around commercial execution.
Capture this nuclear momentum by reviewing a curated set of SMR and related infrastructure plays through the 19 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks.NuScale Power now pairs a fully certified SMR design and fresh capital with a share price that has fallen sharply over the past year. Is that a strong platform mispriced, or a fair reflection of commercial risk?
Most Popular Narrative: 92% Undervalued
NuScale Power last closed at $8.02, while the most followed narrative on the stock anchors fair value at $100. That gap frames the debate around whether the current share price fully reflects the risks of an unprofitable, capital-intensive nuclear developer or is deeply disconnected from the long-term potential described by narrative-driven investors.
Its my fudemental belief that retail has a strayed from real long-term value, and towards a perverse sentiment rooted purely in numbers. The market looked at NuScale's 2023 project cancellation and saw a failed company. That's the wrong frame. What actually happened is that a first-of-kind technology encountered the first regulatory hurdle and cost discovery, which is not a verdict on the technology, it's the expected friction of building something that has never been built at commercial scale before.
See why 37 investors see NuScale Power as 92% undervalued.
According to Delphic, the narrative behind that $100 fair value leans heavily on structural demand for always-on, low carbon power for data centers and energy intensive infrastructure, framing NuScale Power as one of the few licensed options ready to address that need. The same storyline accepts that NuScale is currently unprofitable, with losses having increased over the past 5 years and forecasts pointing to continued red ink over the next 3 years, but argues that regulatory progress and potential customer adoption matter more than near term earnings.
That gap between story and financials is wide. On one side, the narrative points to NuScale's fully certified U.S. small modular reactor design and positions the Nuclear Regulatory Commission approval as a moat that took years and significant capital to secure. On the other side, current fundamentals show revenue of $10.69 million against a net loss of $415.702 million, a negative return on equity of 34.43%, no forecast path to profitability over the next 3 years, higher risk funding with no customer deposits, and recent shareholder dilution.
Investors weighing this 92% narrative discount are effectively choosing which set of inputs to prioritise. Revenue is forecast to grow 62.02% per year and is expected to outpace both the wider U.S. market at 13.8% and the 20% high growth threshold, yet analysts also expect the business to remain loss making over the same horizon. At the same time, the stock carries a value score of 2 out of 6, while P/B of 1.6x is framed as better value than both peer and U.S. Electrical industry averages in the available checks, hinting at some support from balance sheet based metrics even as earnings stay negative.
Board and management data adds another layer to the story. The board is considered experienced with an average tenure of 9.6 years and 78% independence, while the management team has an average tenure of 3.3 years, meeting the site's experience threshold. CEO total compensation of $4.08 million is reported below the $7.08 million average for similar sized U.S. firms, although that pay has increased while NuScale is unprofitable, which will matter to readers who focus on alignment between leadership rewards and shareholder outcomes.
Result: Fair Value of $100 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, two weak spots could flip this narrative fast: NuScale Power’s lack of customer deposits today and the scale of ongoing losses at $415.702 million.
Find out about the key risks to this NuScale Power narrative.
Next Steps
If this mix of enthusiasm and concern around NuScale Power feels familiar, treat it as your cue to review the underlying data now and weigh both sides through the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond NuScale Power?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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