According to Woofun AI, the S&P 500 once again hit a new all-time high (ATH), yet Bitcoin failed to keep up with the strong performance of this macro market. This divergence in asset trends is not an accident. Historical experience profoundly shows that the single dimension of “rising risk appetite” alone cannot explain the current market differentiation. The core contradiction is that there are essential differences in the sensitivity of different assets to the liquidity and interest rate environment.
On October 6, driven by both falling oil prices and falling US Treasury bond yields, the S&P 500 index rose strongly above 7,840 points, setting a new record. The data showed that the index had broken through this critical level, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell about 2.1 basis points to 5.28%. The market's optimistic expectations for the artificial intelligence sector and the upcoming earnings season have further boosted the index. At the same time, the US dollar exchange rate, which has recently strengthened and then declined, has also boosted various market sentiment in US dollars.
Although long-term borrowing costs remained high, and the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds was close to 5.66% on the same day, this did not completely offset the short-term benefits; it just did not return the market to the low yield environment required for the previous cryptocurrency rebound. For Bitcoin, this record is more of a background than a conclusion. Investors are increasing their risk exposure in leading stocks, but the key is whether lower yields and a weaker dollar can last long enough to substantially affect BTC. Our analysis points out that the role of the US dollar in Bitcoin's macro environment has a more lasting impact than several rounds of strong stock market performance. The new high of the S&P 500 is only a data node, not an independent signal of BTC's trend. For example, the August 2025 market should be viewed as a complete cycle, and it would be an exaggeration to see every new high as a trigger.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the current 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5%, far from the interest rate environment during the 2020-21 bull market, and the depreciation of the US dollar is only a brief reaction after strengthening, and the long-term trend is still unclear.
Historical case reviews reveal huge differences in BTC's performance in different macro environments. In February 2020, when the S&P 500 index hit a record, the price of Bitcoin was around $9,600. The COVID-19 pandemic then broke out, and investors switched to cash assets, causing Bitcoin to drop sharply at the same time as the stock market. This record actually marks the end of the market phase. In contrast, the situation in August 2020 was quite different: interest rates were lower, central banks provided large amounts of liquidity, and the dollar depreciated.
Although BTC's trend did not rise in a straight line after the S&P 500 hit a record, the following months drove it into the 2020-21 bull market. The difference between February and August 2020 is rooted in a different market environment at the time the record was formed. On January 3, 2022, the S&P 500 hit another closing high, when the price of Bitcoin was around $46,500. At that time, the market was already expecting the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, increase bond yields, and raise capital costs. Against the backdrop of rising interest rates, Bitcoin's rebound efforts eventually ended in a sharper decline as investors reassessed the value of risky assets. The situation was different in January 2024: after the US Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT.US) began trading, Bitcoin initially adjusted due to early buyers' profit settlement and market adaptation to structural changes, then hit a new record high in March. This shows that even if the stock market is part of the broader market as a whole, favorable factors specific to cryptocurrencies can dominate the BTC trend.
According to comprehensive research, historical rules show that when the stock market is strong and the financial environment is relaxed, or there is strong demand for cryptography, the trend of Bitcoin is usually better; once there is a liquidity shock or policy tightening, BTC faces difficulties. What the current situation has in common with the favorable environment is that financial pressure has eased — falling oil prices have mitigated concerns about inflation, lower yields and a weaker dollar have given the stock market room to rise.
However, the 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5%, far from the 2020-21 interest rate environment. Bitcoin's own momentum is also critical. Stable spot buying behavior signals are quite different from trends mainly driven by futures leverage or closing short positions. Its own market data is at least as important as S&P 500's performance. The new high of the S&P 500 reflects the willingness of stock investors to take more risks as pressure on yields and the dollar abates. The previous record period indicates that Bitcoin may rebound, lag, or decline in the face of the same market events. Future changes in yield, the US dollar exchange rate, and Bitcoin's own demand will determine whether the trend is dominated by the stock market or evolve into a shift in overall risk appetite.