The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to reports, Shell (SHEL.US) CEO Wael Sawan (Wael Sawan) said on Tuesday that Middle East oil flows have returned to about 80% of pre-war levels, which confirms the resilience of countries in the region in maintaining supply commitments to the global market.
Although many banks and shipping analysis agencies also believe that oil flows in the Middle East are approaching pre-conflict levels, Savan's latest statement provides the outside world with one of the most authoritative assessments so far to judge the progress of the region's export recovery.
According to data from the ship tracking agency Kpler (Kpler), Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran exported nearly 16.33 million barrels of oil per day in September, a decrease of about 3.2 million barrels from about 19.51 million barrels before the outbreak of the conflict in February this year, returning to about 80% of pre-war levels. Middle Eastern oil producers are expected to leave the Strait of Hormuz for nearly 9.72 million barrels of crude oil per day, and this data does not include vessels that have turned off automatic identification systems to evade detection.
J.P. Morgan's assessment is more optimistic. The bank's commodity analysts estimate that the average daily transportation volume of crude oil from the Middle East reached about 17.5 million barrels in September, equivalent to 98% of the pre-war level, and the average daily export volume of refined oil products such as diesel and gasoline was about 3 million barrels, which is equivalent to 58% before the war. The J.P. Morgan team stated in the report that “the Middle East's oil export arteries are flowing again,” which is a “considerable recovery” for regions still at war.
“People have realized once again that without energy security, there is no national security,” Savan said at the London Energy Intelligence Forum. “There can be no industrial strategy or economic strategy without a solid energy strategy as support.”
However, Savan also warned that the longer the war continues, the more difficult it will be for the market to absorb supply disruptions; although oil flows have rebounded, they have not yet returned to normal. Had it not been for the decline in demand in China and increased production in other regions, the tight supply situation would have been even worse.
“We may have buffered the worst impact of the crisis, but this practice cannot continue indefinitely, otherwise there will be more supply disruptions,” said Savan.