The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong Securities released a research report saying that the average daily sales of retail and catering companies continued to recover during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, and the total volume continued to grow; consumer consumption is biased, and overall service consumption is better than physical consumption. The trend of improving popular products is determined, liquor is being cleared at an accelerated pace, and those that grow and exceed the target are recommended. 1) Accelerate the exploration of liquor, and recommend those that are the first to clear the tenders; 2) condiments and meal supplies are flexible in volume and price recovery; 3) recommend health foods and some snacks in the upward cycle of the industry; 4) increase sales during the peak season of beer; 5) drink growth; 6) dairy products.
Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:
The business district's turnover continues to grow, and the high number of travelers supports scenario demand. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, the average daily sales of key retail and catering companies across the country increased 6.1% year-on-year during the Mid-Autumn Festival; in the three days before the National Day, the Ministry of Commerce monitored a 3.4% increase in passenger traffic and a 5.3% increase in turnover in the business district. The number of people moving across regions in the three days of Mid-Autumn Festival was 643.161 million, an average of 214.387 million people per day, an increase of 2.2% over Mid-Autumn Festival; the first four days of the National Day, the cross-regional movement of people was 1,244 million, which was basically the same as the previous year. Demand for medium- and long-term cross-provincial travel and return trips was active, driven by the double holiday season. The current total holiday consumption continues to recover, and resident-side consumption is biased. Cost-effective and subsidized consumption are popular. Service consumption is superior to physical consumption, and unique county and local scenarios have become an important source of incremental growth.
Liquor: The peak season is lackluster, and the National Day continues its Mid-Autumn Festival performance. The liquor industry's 2026 Double Festival sales were relatively lackluster. In the current Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day break, China Day was an important gift and banquet window, and no obvious signs of acceleration were observed. It is expected that the National Day liquor sales trend is generally close to the Mid-Autumn Festival, and sales of Shuangjie liquor are expected to decline year on year. In comparison, the price performance of liquor was better than sales. Delivery in September caused a slight correction in the wholesale price of high-end liquor, but overall market confidence in the price was maintained. In terms of structure, the market differentiation in Shuangjie is still obvious. High-end wines and popular wines of 100-300 yuan perform well in the price range, while brands perform best at all price points. Overall, liquor has moved from the previous channel delivery pressure to the actual marketing drive. Brands are no longer pressuring the workload, and the supply side remains rational during the peak season. The actual channel sales performance is expected to be better than the winery delivery situation, and the industry continues to be out of stock.
Popular products: Demand for holiday dining is concentrated, and family gatherings and travel have increased the scene. Mid-Autumn Festival dining mainly hosts family reunions, family and friend gatherings. National Day dining focuses on scenes such as visitors arriving at the store, local leisure, and exploring stores across cities. The snack industry is divided, and mass sales channels maintain their comparative advantage. Looking at the category side, the popularity of healthy snacks such as high protein and low GI has increased markedly. New products in some segments are growing rapidly, and there is great potential for the future.
Risk warning: Increased macroeconomic fluctuations, increased industry competition, food safety risks.