The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to preliminary data obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in September of this year, China's heavy truck market sold a total of about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale sales volume, including exports and new energy). Sales improved from August to August, achieving a month-on-month increase of about 10%, but a decrease of about 10% compared to 106,000 vehicles in the same period last year. In terms of heavy new energy trucks, the market went through the “off-season period” in July and August. Sales jumped to more than 30,000 units in September. Total sales are expected to exceed 33,000 units, an increase of nearly 40% over 24,000 vehicles in the same period last year, and an increase of more than 20% over August.
Monthly chart of sales volume in China's heavy truck market for 2020-2026 (unit: vehicle)
Heavy truck sales fell 10% year on year in September, and there was some improvement from month to month
The heavy truck market, which made great strides in the first half of this year, entered an “off-season adjustment period” in the second half of this year. In particular, in July and August, sales declined two times over the same period last year. Compared with May and June, the situation can be described as a sharp turn.
In September of this year, China's heavy truck market sold a total of about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale sales volume, including exports and new energy), down about 10% from 106,000 vehicles in the same period last year. This is the fourth year-on-year decline in the heavy truck industry since this year, and it is also the third consecutive decline since this year.
From January to September of this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy truck industry reached about 926,000 vehicles, an increase of about 13% over the previous year, and the cumulative growth rate slowed further.
2015-2026 annual sales chart of China's heavy truck industry (unit: 10,000 vehicles)
Wholesale sales in the heavy truck market increased month-on-month in September, mainly due to seasonal changes. Transportation demand improved compared to the off-season in July-August, so demand for car purchases also increased to a certain extent. However, the year-on-year decline was due to the “intertwining” of various adverse factors: weak domestic freight demand, lower freight rates, overdrafts of policies and regulations, inventory removal by the industry, higher sales volume in the same period last year, and higher oil and gas prices.
First, since the second half of the year, the logistics and transportation industry has been under extreme pressure compared to the first half of the year. Road freight rates have been sluggish, the operating profitability of fleets and individuals has further deteriorated, and demand for car purchases has weakened; in addition, the sales base for the same period last year was high (driven by the trade-in of national four trucks), and the incentive effect of the trade-in policy was relatively limited.
Second, the entire third quarter market, including September, was actually still absorbing the impact of early overdrafts brought about by the change in AEBS regulations for heavy trucks, and the heavy truck industry is still losing inventory; in addition, the price of traditional petrochemical energy was rising (diesel price and LNG price), which in turn led to a significant year-on-year decline in sales in segments including LNG heavy trucks and diesel heavy trucks.
Third, public data shows that from August to September of this year, the wholesale price of gasoline and diesel rose 4 times and dropped 1 time. In this overall environment of “more or less,” the terminal sales price of CNPC and Sinopec diesel has soared to more than 8.2 yuan/L, while the price of LNG also increased in September. Gas prices are generally above 6 yuan/kg, 6.5 yuan, 6.7 yuan, and 6.9 yuan are not uncommon. Diesel prices have continued to rise, and gas prices have not given up much. A large number of medium- and long-haul oil and gas truck users are “lying flat” and are not considering replacing new cars for the time being. This is bound to have a direct negative impact on demand for new heavy trucks at the end of the third quarter.
Domestic demand is relatively average, and there is still good news from overseas. Although the “Golden Nine” is underdeveloped, overseas exports are still strong. In September of this year, benefiting from export markets such as Africa, Latin America and Central Asia, China's heavy truck industry continued to maintain an upward trend in overseas sales. The export volume for the month is expected to increase by about 21% year on year.
Gas cars are waiting to pick up, and exports and electric heavy trucks “carry the flag”
In September 2026, China's heavy truck sales “fell three times in a row”. What was the performance of segments such as heavy natural gas trucks and new energy heavy trucks?
Due to the “superposition” of various adverse factors (as described above), actual sales of domestic heavy truck terminals are expected to drop by nearly 20% year on year in September this year, and increase by about 19% from month to month (“repair”). Obviously, the month-on-month restoration was not ideal. The year-on-year decline was still double digit, and the “Golden Nine” was not successful enough.
On the one hand, actual sales of heavy natural gas trucks still fell by more than 60% year-on-year in September. Since June of this year, due to the rise in gas prices, the heavy gas truck market has entered a downward channel (sales volume in May is basically flat). So far, there have been four consecutive declines: 12% in June to 12,000 units, and in July and August to 6,000 vehicles; in September, it is expected to drop about 63% year on year, with a month-on-month restorative increase of more than 30%, and the domestic penetration rate is less than 13%. Compared to the sales level of over 23,000 vehicles in the same period last year, the sales volume of heavy gas trucks in September 2026 was indeed a bit bleak.
Whether heavy natural gas trucks can continue to rise sequentially in October depends on the trend of oil and gas prices.
On the other hand, sales of new energy heavy truck terminals, with pure electric heavy trucks as the main force, have returned to a high level of more than 30,000 units. In September of this year, the NEV heavy truck market passed through the “off-season period” of July and August (the average monthly sales volume in July-August was only 26,000 units). The monthly sales volume jumped to more than 30,000 units. The total sales volume is expected to exceed 33,000 units, an increase of nearly 40% over 24,000 vehicles in the same period last year, and an increase of more than 20% over August. Objectively speaking, the year-on-year growth rate of NEV heavy truck sales has continued to slow since the second half of the year. This is certainly affected by market overdrafts in the second quarter, but it is more due to factors where the base for the same period last year increased month by month — sales of new energy heavy trucks in 2025 have reached the 20,000 level since September.