The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that overseas security discussions have not changed the pace of high-frequency model iteration, and RSI has gradually become the consensus of leading model companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic; domestic Ali (09988) and Smart Spectrum have completed financing of about HK$80 billion and $5 billion respectively, supporting large-scale investment to support model capacity to catch up, and Tencent (00700) has also increased overseas computing power procurement. In terms of commercialization, cooperation among overseas companies has deepened, and the annual revenue operating rate of ChatGPT advertising has reached 1 billion US dollars. Muse is driving the broadening of consumer-side monetization paths; domestic agents are still expected to drive token calls and a new round of ARR growth by increasing the density of single-user tasks. The overall trend in the domestic AI sector is upward. It is recommended to focus on computing power services, domestic chips and supernodes, and B-side AI application vendors with the ability to deliver scenarios, data, and enterprises.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
Overseas: Model capabilities continue to improve, enterprise deployment and consumer-side monetization implementation
Safety discussions have not changed the pace of high-frequency model releases. OpenAI and Anthropic have successively updated GPT-6 Sol/Luna, Opus 5.5, and GPT-6.1 Sol. The latter has capabilities close to GPT-6 Astra and costs only 1/5. R&D automation has begun to feed back model iterations. As of August, Claude's share of R&D work led by human supervision had risen to 26%. In terms of commercialization, Anthropic deepened cooperation with Salesforce and Bain to push agents into the enterprise process; the annual revenue operating rate of ChatGPT advertising reached 1 billion US dollars, Muse expanded personal task entry, and consumer commercial value began to be unleashed.
Domestic: Financing support model expansion, agent tasks accelerate ARR's upward trend
Ali completed a placement of approximately HK$80 billion, and Smartspectrum completed equity financing of approximately US$5 billion. Tencent also increased overseas computing power procurement. In terms of commercialization, MiniMax's token consumption in July reached 20 times that of January, and SmartSpectrum raised the year-end ARR target from 2.4 billion US dollars to 3 billion US dollars. Office agent competition and the Harness ecosystem are still evolving. The next stage of growth will depend more on effective task volume, usage retention, and payment conversion. Improved model capabilities are expected to drive a new round of revenue expansion.
Market review: leading hardware and overseas software repair
Using the close of July 31 as the base period, as of September 30, the IGV and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 12.6% and 11.6% respectively; A-share Communications and Electronics rose 4.7% and 3.2%, while computers and media fell 5.2% and 3.2%. In terms of valuation, IGV's comprehensive PS-TTM was 8.59 times, while Shenwan Computer and Media were 2.80 times and 2.68 times respectively, down 10.1%, 21.6%, and 18.6% respectively from the end of 2025. The increase in AI payments and data calls for overseas software supports valuation repair, and domestic application performance is still quite divided. Subsequent pricing will place more emphasis on customer procurement, continuous use, and profit contributions, and companies with clear AI revenue and delivery capabilities are more likely to receive valuation support.
Risk Alerts
(1) The commercialization of the AI industry falls short of expectations: Currently, the commercialization model for various AI products is still in the exploration stage. If the pace of promotion of various products falls short of expectations, it may adversely affect the performance of related enterprises;
(2) Market competition risk: With their first-mover advantage and strong technology accumulation, overseas AI vendors have an advantage in competition. If domestic AI vendors fall short of expectations, their business conditions may be affected; at the same time, many domestic companies have invested in AI product research and development, and there may be a risk of homogenization competition in the future, which in turn affects the revenue of related enterprises;
(3) Policy risk: The development of AI technology is directly affected by national policies and regulations. As AI penetrates into various fields, the government may further introduce corresponding regulatory policies to regulate its development. If companies fail to adapt and comply with relevant policies in a timely manner, they may face corresponding penalties or even be forced to adjust their business strategies. Furthermore, policy uncertainty may also lead to errors in corporate strategic planning and investment decisions, increasing operational uncertainty;
(4) Geopolitical risk: Under fluctuations in the global geopolitical environment, US export restrictions to China in particular may directly affect domestic companies' acquisition of computing power chips, which in turn affects product development and market competitiveness. At the same time, geopolitical risks may also cause AI products to face obstacles in developing overseas markets, affecting the revenue situation of related companies.