According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the differentiation in the growth rate of travel methods during the National Day holiday intensified. Civil aviation and railway passenger traffic was -1.5% and +10.5% respectively on the first five days of the holiday. Domestic demand for “Benxian tours” and “multi-city cruises” became mainstream. It is expected that deep self-driving and high-speed rail travel methods in surrounding cities will form a diversion of civil aviation. It is expected that the next two months will bring public business demand to further repair the travel market. Demand ahead in the Mid-Autumn Festival and deep self-driving and high-speed rail diversion in surrounding cities suppressed the growth rate of demand for civil aviation travel. Considering the delayed effects of inbound and outbound travel returns, CITIC Securities expects civil aviation passenger traffic to increase 0.5% year-on-year during the National Day holiday. During the National Day holiday, there was a slight increase in civil aviation ticket prices over the same period last year, and CITIC Securities believes that price-side pricing has been out of order since the summer or an important reason for the industry to turn losses, and it is particularly important to form a new “pricing anchor” reflecting real demand. The off-season demand after the National Day may become a window for industry supply and policy adjustments. It is expected that airlines will control actual capacity investment by reducing capacity, improving sales management, adjusting aircraft introduction plans, and adjusting aircraft maintenance arrangements, thereby forming a healthy supply and demand structure. Focus on the timing of aviation's left-hand layout. On the one hand, it is recommended to focus on targets with continuously expanding cost advantages and strong profit certainty, and on the other hand, on targets with significant cyclical flexibility.
Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago
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According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the differentiation in the growth rate of travel methods during the National Day holiday intensified. Civil aviation and railway passenger traffic was -1.5% and +10.5% respectively on the first five days of the holiday. Domestic demand for “Benxian tours” and “multi-city cruises” became mainstream. It is expected that deep self-driving and high-speed rail travel methods in surrounding cities will form a diversion of civil aviation. It is expected that the next two months will bring public business demand to further repair the travel market. Demand ahead in the Mid-Autumn Festival and deep self-driving and high-speed rail diversion in surrounding cities suppressed the growth rate of demand for civil aviation travel. Considering the delayed effects of inbound and outbound travel returns, CITIC Securities expects civil aviation passenger traffic to increase 0.5% year-on-year during the National Day holiday. During the National Day holiday, there was a slight increase in civil aviation ticket prices over the same period last year, and CITIC Securities believes that price-side pricing has been out of order since the summer or an important reason for the industry to turn losses, and it is particularly important to form a new “pricing anchor” reflecting real demand. The off-season demand after the National Day may become a window for industry supply and policy adjustments. It is expected that airlines will control actual capacity investment by reducing capacity, improving sales management, adjusting aircraft introduction plans, and adjusting aircraft maintenance arrangements, thereby forming a healthy supply and demand structure. Focus on the timing of aviation's left-hand layout. On the one hand, it is recommended to focus on targets with continuously expanding cost advantages and strong profit certainty, and on the other hand, on targets with significant cyclical flexibility.
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