According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the performance forecast for the 3Q26 transportation and logistics sector continues to diverge, the cyclical paradigm reshaping drives oil transportation and shipping to release profit elasticity, and major oil transportation conflicts are once again driven, and the target of a new round of immediate price increases after the National Day of crude oil continues to be recommended. At the same time, companies are concerned about the effects of G7's release of strategic crude oil and diesel inventories, where cracking price differences remain high, and rising seasonal demand compounded by cross-regional transportation is expected to drive up demand for refined oil transportation. In terms of shipping, the increase in shipowners' profits is expected to become a key variable catalyzed once again on the valuation side, and companies with a revaluation of the Red Sea narrative and steady cash flow to lock in high dividends will continue to be recommended. At the same time, prices were fixed during the peak season for express delivery, and the low growth rate accelerated the differentiation of competitiveness. In terms of air cargo, AI chain-related sources became the key driving force for air cargo growth in the first half of the year. The share of high-tech supplies with more stable schedules increased, focusing on demand for inventory replenishment during the peak season and the introduction and transmission of new capacity to the profit side. At the same time, the ability of companies with low expectations and very attractive odds to resist cycles is highlighted. The oil transportation cycle has been reshaped and strengthened, and attention is being paid to the peak season of express delivery and cross-border transportation.
Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago
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According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the performance forecast for the 3Q26 transportation and logistics sector continues to diverge, the cyclical paradigm reshaping drives oil transportation and shipping to release profit elasticity, and major oil transportation conflicts are once again driven, and the target of a new round of immediate price increases after the National Day of crude oil continues to be recommended. At the same time, companies are concerned about the effects of G7's release of strategic crude oil and diesel inventories, where cracking price differences remain high, and rising seasonal demand compounded by cross-regional transportation is expected to drive up demand for refined oil transportation. In terms of shipping, the increase in shipowners' profits is expected to become a key variable catalyzed once again on the valuation side, and companies with a revaluation of the Red Sea narrative and steady cash flow to lock in high dividends will continue to be recommended. At the same time, prices were fixed during the peak season for express delivery, and the low growth rate accelerated the differentiation of competitiveness. In terms of air cargo, AI chain-related sources became the key driving force for air cargo growth in the first half of the year. The share of high-tech supplies with more stable schedules increased, focusing on demand for inventory replenishment during the peak season and the introduction and transmission of new capacity to the profit side. At the same time, the ability of companies with low expectations and very attractive odds to resist cycles is highlighted. The oil transportation cycle has been reshaped and strengthened, and attention is being paid to the peak season of express delivery and cross-border transportation.
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