According to Woofun AI, the price of Ripple fell back to $1.43 on October 7, a single-day decline of 5.46%. Although the total holding size of the five US Ripple spot ETFs is anchored at 1.7 billion US dollars, their financial attractiveness diverged significantly.
Structural imbalances in capital flows have become the focus of the current market. According to Maketo data, as of the close of trading on October 6, the five tracked funds held a total of about 1.13 billion Ripple coins, corresponding to a market value of 1.7 billion US dollars.
Despite an overall net inflow of $3.9 million over the past week and a monthly net inflow of $112 million, weekly data has revealed severe internal heat and cold unevenness. Specifically, Bitwise bucked the trend and absorbed $11 million and became the only positive contributor; in contrast, the Franklin Fund experienced a redemption of $4.1 million, and the Canary Fund lost $3.3 million, while Grayscale (Grayscale) and 21Shares products remained static.
This “one wins and one does not prosper” situation has caused the industry as a whole to maintain only weak positive growth. Notably, the Canary Fund's holdings fell from 23.35 million on October 5 to 23.14 million on October 6. This net redemption did not disclose specific investor identity or token whereabouts, highlighting the information asymmetry between secondary market transactions and primary market share redemptions.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this kind of “blood loss” and “hematopoiesis” coexist at the capital level, reflecting that institutional investors' allocation strategies for Ripple spot ETFs are undergoing drastic adjustments. The head effect is becoming more obvious, while tail funds are facing continuous liquidity pressure.
The complexity of on-chain data further obscures the real relationship between supply and demand. According to XRP Insights ledger data at 08:00 UTC on October 7, 24 exchanges held a total of 21.98 billion Ripple coins in 699 public wallets. This figure includes cold storage and token reserves, which is higher than the actual amount that can be traded. Compared with the data for the previous seven days, the total number of exchange wallets decreased by 26.5 million, or 0.13%. Among them, Binance (Binance) controlled a reduction of 33 million wallets, while Upbit increased by 11.5 million; on a monthly basis, the total number decreased by 1.63 billion. XRP Insights notes that this decline is mainly due to the transfer of tokens to untracked new wallets, rather than simply pressure to sell. Excluding Uphold's influence, the drop was only 0.54% (75 million fewer).
More importantly, Ripple released 1 billion Ripple coins on October 1, while re-hosting 700 million, leaving the remaining 300 million in escrow. This operation did not directly cause market pressure, indicating that the so-called 'tight supply' narrative may have been exaggerated by storage migrations within the exchange. Recorded redemptions are often just exchange adjustments to storage locations, and do not necessarily represent investors leaving the market. Therefore, there is a risk of serious misjudgment by simply relying on changes in wallet balances to judge market sentiment.
The derivatives market and macro context provide an additional dimension to price fluctuations. At 14:29 UTC on October 7, CoinGlass data showed that the 24-hour trading volume of Ripple futures reached US$3.97 billion, five times the spot volume of US$8015.6 billion, and the value of open contracts was US$3.35 billion. At this point, Ripple quoted $1.4308, down 5.46% from the previous day.
However, the total volume reflects all trading activity, and it is impossible to distinguish whether futures sellers led the decline or passively followed it. An open position contract includes all long and short positions. Its decline is not equivalent to the occurrence of liquidation; it is necessary to make a comprehensive judgment based on financing costs and liquidation data.
Furthermore, the price of Bitcoin fell to $83,100 on October 7, down from $85,557.56 on October 6. The correction in macro assets also dragged down Ripple. Currently, the identity of the main seller is unclear. In the future, we need to focus on excluding exchange dynamics after storage migration, stronger ETF net inflow signals, and changes in position structures in the derivatives market to clarify the real driving force behind the price decline.