According to Woofun AI, the minutes of the September 15-16 meeting revealed that most officials supported another rate hike in 2026. The reaction between the US stock market and gold prices was lackluster. Only Bitcoin bucked the trend within 5 minutes after the news was released, highlighting differences in the sensitivity of the crypto market to interest rates.
The minutes recorded that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. With 12 votes in favor and 0 against, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. According to the minutes, most participants believed that another rate hike in 2026 would be a reasonable choice; while some indicated that the risk of inflation is rising, and prices may rise faster than expected. There are also several officials who believe that current interest rates are not suppressing, or are only mildly suppressing. In the Federal Reserve's statement, “suppressing” means that borrowing costs are high enough to slow spending and contain the level of inflation. All 19 officials supported the September interest rate hike decision. Most expect another rate hike in 2026. Inflation risk is still trending upward. Many people think there is a reason to manage risk through interest rate hikes. Several officials believe that current interest rates have only a slight deterrent effect. Some participants also said that the rapid development in the field of artificial intelligence and the huge amount of investment related to data centers and chips still surprised them.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the S&P 500 index, which covers 500 large US companies, remained around 7,801 points in the first 5 minutes after the news was released at 2 p.m. EST, a decrease of 0.02%. The price of gold remained stable at around $4,110 an ounce, and about 45 minutes before the minutes of the meeting were published, its price had reached around $4,125. The document doesn't reveal any new information — the idea that there will be another rate hike appeared as early as September 16. At the time, the Federal Reserve's forecast showed that half of the officials expected another 0.25 percentage point increase before the end of the year, and 16 out of 18 officials thought there would be at least one rate hike.
Furthermore, the minutes of this meeting were published earlier than the September employment data. In that month, American employers created only about 29,000 jobs, far below expectations of around 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Traders have reduced the probability of interest rate hikes in October from around 55% a week ago to around 20%. Banks such as J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.US) expect another rate hike in December. Recently, the long-term yield on US Treasury bonds reached its highest level since 2002. This trend is related to the $400 billion metal sell-off that occurred early Wednesday.
The price of Bitcoin on the Binance platform rose from around $83,159 to $83,306 in the first 5 minutes after the news was released, an increase of 0.18%, the biggest increase among the three major markets. Bitcoin's price had previously declined; it was still around $83,600 around 12:30 p.m. EST, and dropped to around $83,050 shortly before 2 p.m. Unlike the stock market, Bitcoin is traded around the clock and began falling even before the news was released. Interest rate decisions have always influenced the trend of the cryptocurrency market: in the week after the September rate hike, investors invested $3.55 billion in cryptocurrency funds, the largest weekly cryptocurrency inflow since 2026.
Since that meeting, there have been differences in the attitude of various officials in public. New York Federal Reserve Bank President Williams believes it is reasonable to raise interest rates once more this year, while Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Governor Lori Logan argues that it may be necessary to raise interest rates at least twice. Federal Reserve Bank President Michelle Bowman said there is currently no urgent need to raise interest rates. The next meeting of the Federal Reserve will be held from October 27th to 28th, just a few days until the US midterm elections. The September consumer price data to be released on October 14 will be the last important indicator of inflation before that decision. With the release of this data, everyone can keep an eye on today's Bitcoin price trend.