Recently, Goldman Sachs warned that diesel prices may remain high until the end of 2027 due to limited refining capacity in various countries, compounded by the recovery in demand driven by national governments and enterprises. Nikhil Bhandari, co-head of Asia Pacific Natural Resources Research at Goldman Sachs, publicly stated: “We need to keep the price of refined oil products high enough to continue to suppress demand to a certain extent next year.” The bank believes that in the current context where refining production capacity continues to be limited, global diesel prices must remain high to prevent recovering demand from exceeding the capacity load of refineries. Despite the forecast, as crude oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to gradually return to normal in the near future, the price of Brent crude oil will stabilize around 80 US dollars per barrel, but weak refining capacity will continue to limit diesel prices. Goldman Sachs predicts that the average global cracking price difference between diesel and aviation kerosene will be higher than $40 per barrel in 2027, which is more than double the conventional level in the past. Bhandari predicts: “If demand rebounds next year, the global refining system may reach the highest operating rate in the past 20 years.”

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