The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report stating that China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) is expected to have EPS of 1.32/1.58/1.72 yuan from 2025 to 2027, respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 16/13/12 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating. On September 30, the company announced that Mr. Li Bin was appointed as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Non-Executive Director of China Tobacco Hong Kong. Effective September 30, 2026, he will also serve as Chairman of the Nomination Committee, Chairman of the Strategic Development Committee, and a member of the Remuneration Committee.
Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:
Group core management positions transferred, with deep experience in the tobacco industry
Mr. Li Bin has been involved in the tobacco industry since 1992 and has been deeply involved for 34 years. He has served as the director of Guangdong China Tobacco Guangzhou Cigarette Factory, the general manager of China Tobacco in Guangxi, the general manager of China Tobacco in Henan, and the general manager of China Tobacco in Hubei (August 2024 to July 2026). He has mixed experience in tobacco enterprise management, multi-category product development, market operation and international expansion. Mr. Li Bin has been the chairman of China Tobacco International Group Co., Ltd. and the general manager and director of China Tobacco International Co., Ltd. since July 2026. The company's strategic position has been further strengthened as the only listing platform within the Chinese tobacco system.
New tobacco: Supported by the experience of core industrial companies, it is expected to rise to the next level during the policy window
Hubei Tobacco, which Mr. Li Bin was previously in charge of, is a leading force in the domestic HNB industry. Its “MOK” heating equipment uses completely self-developed needle heating technology and has 159 related patents. It is one of the most standardized and industrialized domestic HNB products in China. At the policy level, the “Heated Cigarettes” national standard consultation draft was released in July 2026, and the consultation ended on September 26. The domestic HNB regulatory framework is gradually becoming clear, and the company is expected to benefit from the advantages of the Chinese tobacco system and overseas channels.
Traditional tobacco: upgrading the ability to coordinate resources between tobacco leaf import and cigarette exports
In terms of tobacco imports, 26H1 is affected by factors such as international trade relations and overseas wars. The number of tobacco leaves imported by the company from the US and other regions has decreased markedly, focusing on US orders and global supply chain replacement. In terms of tobacco exports, 26H1 is actively expanding new supply channels, promoting business expansion in non-exclusive regions, and strengthening the connection between supply and demand, driving rapid sales and revenue growth. In terms of cigarette exports, 26H1 was affected by the phased adjustment of business processes in the domestic duty-free market, and some cigarette shipments were delayed; according to the “Measures for the Administration of Tobacco Products in the Domestic Duty Free Market”, the new business arrangement will enter the implementation and transition phase in 2026. With the gradual streamlining of the process, the pace of shipment is expected to resume, and the room for subsequent self-operated business expansion and gross margin increase is worth paying attention to.
Risk Alerts
The risk of natural disasters, the risk of changes in tobacco industry policies, large exchange rate fluctuations, and channel and new product expansion falls short of expectations.