According to the October 8 research report of Shenyin Wanguo Futures, the market is clearly driven by geographical tension in the Middle East. The strait waterway continued to be disrupted during the National Day holiday. Shipowners' risk aversion heated up, methanol shipments to the Middle East were blocked, and shipping freight and insurance premiums rose sharply. The Middle East accounts for a relatively high share of China's methanol imports. Most shipments need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Increased shipping risk directly suppresses the pace of external methanol exports and shipments. Market concerns about the subsequent decline in inbound volume to port, and the landing cost of imported supplies has risen markedly, driving the strengthening of methanol contracts in recent months. The domestic methanol market was closed during the holidays, overseas risk premiums continued to accumulate, and the post-holiday opening was concentrated to be realized. Currently, methanol stocks in coastal ports are already low, and the contraction in import arrival expectations has further amplified tight expectations on the spot side. Combined with the sharp rise in crude oil, the overall cost center of gravity in the chemical sector has moved upward, and the resonance of multiple benefits has boosted the market. However, it is important to note that this round of rise is a market driven by geopolitical events, and there is strong uncertainty. Follow-up focus will be on tracking whether strait shipping can return to normal and the Middle East methanol shipment situation, while also focusing on MTO's ability to meet downstream demand.

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