The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's latest notebook industry research, the main risk in the notebook market in 2027 will shift from supply restrictions to the impact of rising costs on demand. Jibang Consulting currently anticipates a low single-digit decline in global notebook shipments in 2027, but if DRAM and CPU prices remain high, brands will be forced to expand cost transfers, leading to a rise in terminal prices, which may further extend the consumer switching cycle. The decline in shipments throughout the year is not ruled out to increase to a high single digit.
Jibang Consulting said that in 2026, due to improved CPU supply, early brand procurement, and early release of some switching requirements, it will support notebook market shipments, but this does not indicate a real recovery in terminal demand. As some of the demand originally anticipated to be released in the second half of the year and beyond is reflected in advance, subsequent market replacement energy will be compressed. Coupled with the gradual digestion of low-cost inventories, brands will face the pressure of rising CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices more directly.
Looking at mainstream products with a recommended sales price (MSRP) of 900 US dollars, the combined share of CPU, DRAM, and SSD in notebook BOM in the third quarter of 2026 has risen to about 68%, indicating a marked increase in the impact of core component costs on product pricing. In the face of rising costs, if brands raise sales prices, they will face the risk of falling demand; if they absorb costs on their own, gross margin will inevitably be pressured; if BOM is controlled by reducing specifications such as memory, it may weaken product competitiveness. Jibang Consulting predicts that in 2027, it will be difficult for brands to simultaneously maintain prices, specifications, and profit margins, and the degree of cost transfer will be an important variable affecting demand.
Emerging production areas are expensive, and brands are readjusting their production layout
In this context, the brand may re-examine the production layout adjusted in the past due to geographical risk factors. If the impact of subsequent tariffs does not expand further, brand assessments of origin will gradually shift from reducing policy risks to manufacturing costs, supply chain integrity, and production efficiency. Especially in the face of rising parts costs, increased logistics, parts scheduling, and supply chain management costs in emerging production areas will receive more attention.
TrendForce Jibang Consulting estimates that notebooks made overseas will account for about 24% of global production in 2025, drop to about 21% in 2026, and may fall below 20% in 2027, indicating that brand supply chain strategies will rebalance risk diversification and manufacturing efficiency as policies and cost conditions change.
On the other hand, the supply of notebook parts may be further divided in 2027. As AI server applications continue to occupy advanced process production capacity, DRAM supply is still tight, and PC DRAM even faces the risk that supply growth will be limited; there is an opportunity for the tight supply of NAND Flash to gradually improve in the second half of 2027 as new production capacity is launched. In addition to memory, components such as PCBs, MLCCs, and PMICs are also affected by production capacity allocation, raw materials, and geographical factors. Prices have risen or delivery times have been lengthened, making the brand's cost and supply chain management more difficult.
TrendForce Jibang Consulting said that in 2027, the focus of the notebook market will shift from whether supply is sufficient to whether terminals can withstand higher prices. If brands can reduce the impact of terminal prices by adjusting product portfolios and specifications and absorbing part of the cost, the market decline is expected to remain low in single digits. Conversely, if parts costs continue to rise and are fully passed on to consumers, demand may be affected again, causing the decline in shipments throughout the year to a high single digit. How brands can rebalance price, specifications, supply stability, and profit will be the key to stabilizing the notebook market in 2027.