Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is opening a new store in Dripping Springs near Austin, adding to its Central Texas footprint as large retailers continue expanding across the fast growing suburban corridor.
Recent trading has been positive for Academy Sports and Outdoors, with the share price up 9.42% over the past week and a 30 day share price return of 17.09% from a last close of $52.62, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 34.04% points to steadier, slower building momentum over a longer stretch.
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Academy Sports and Outdoors has put up a strong short term run, yet its long term record looks more measured. Is this latest jump the result of a sturdier business, or a burst of fresh enthusiasm before valuation catches up?
Most Popular Narrative: 11% Undervalued
Against the last close of $52.62, the most followed narrative pegs Academy Sports and Outdoors at a fair value of $58.84, which puts the current run up against a higher long term anchor and raises the question of what is being priced in.
An ongoing store expansion strategy focused on secondary/tertiary markets with growing populations and suburban migration (20-25 new stores in 2025, robust early comps in new stores) sets up above-peer top-line growth and improved operating leverage as these locations mature.
See why 22 investors see Academy Sports and Outdoors as 11% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $58.84 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the Academy Sports and Outdoors story could be knocked off course if higher income shoppers pull back or if heavier promotions continue to pressure profitability.
Find out about the key risks to this Academy Sports and Outdoors narrative.
Next Steps
Plenty in the Academy Sports and Outdoors story points both ways, so move quickly, review the data yourself, and weigh the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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