Pre-market market trends
1. On October 9 (Friday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.14%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.42%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.88%.
2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 1.29%, the British FTSE 100 index rose 1.18%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.94%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 1.05%.
3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 1.04% to $90.54 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 1.49% to $102.73 per barrel.
Market news
Goldman Sachs raised expectations for an interest rate hike after Waller released the hawk: or two more times, to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December. After Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller made hawkish remarks at the Turkish Central Bank Forum in Istanbul, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jane Hatzius said that the Federal Reserve may choose to raise interest rates two more times rather than just once in December. Hazius said in a report that it may be more appropriate to raise interest rates two more times; the probability of raising interest rates only once in December has declined. The analyst said that Waller's speech marked a shift in his position from previously emphasizing the three-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation to hawkish, yet Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in December.
OpenAI and Anthropic executives privately deduced the AI disaster scenario, fearing that a major accident would trigger a public backlash. According to reports, senior executives at Anthropic, OpenAI, and other artificial intelligence companies are privately deducing various scenarios to deal with large-scale public backlash and political boycotts that may be triggered if a catastrophic AI incident occurs. These executives anticipate that a major incident may occur in the future, most likely in the form of a cyber attack, which will disrupt financial services, internet connections, and even electricity and water supply systems. Many AI industry insiders believe that major accidents may be difficult to avoid.
OpenAI expects annualized revenue to reach $70 billion by the end of 2026. According to people familiar with the matter, OpenAI expects its annualized revenue to reach or exceed 70 billion US dollars by the end of this year, driven by corporate business growth. People familiar with the matter said that OpenAI's annualized revenue as of the end of September was about 50 billion US dollars. This indicator is an estimated annual revenue level based on sales over a shorter period of time. They said that OpenAI disclosed the above data to investors while discussing the latest round of financing. Earlier, it was reported that OpenAI is in talks to raise at least 30 billion US dollars in new capital, with a pre-financing valuation of 1.4 trillion US dollars.
Bank of America: Investors' capital is flocking to cash assets, and this trend is unlikely to change in the short term. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said that investors are investing in cash funds at the fastest speed since the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is unlikely to change this funding trend in the short term. Hartnett pointed out in a report released on Friday that unless the Federal Reserve implements “large-scale monetary easing” and continues to cut interest rates, large amounts of wait-and-see cash funds are expected to remain in money market funds. In the week ending October 7, the net inflow of money market funds was US$166.4 billion, the highest level since April 2020.
The United States plans to propose a new Russian-Ukrainian cease-fire plan involving energy facilities and food transportation. According to reports, US envoys for the Middle East, Witkov and Kushner will hold talks with Ukrainian and European officials in Miami on Friday to propose new plans to break the impasse in the Russian-Ukrainian war, including a partial cease-fire proposal to stop attacks on energy infrastructure and food transportation. Ukraine has indicated its willingness to consider it, but Russia has so far been negative. Witkov and Kushner reported the latest plan to Trump on Thursday. The talks will also discuss Ukraine's security and post-war economic plans. Sources said the two may travel to Moscow later this month for further discussions with Putin.
Trump: The US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections. The two sides are having “productive discussions.” Trump said on Thursday that the US will not launch a military attack on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. And just the day before Trump's statement was announced, there were reports that the White House asked the Pentagon to draw up an attack plan against Iran, and that these plans may be implemented before the midterm elections. Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US is having “productive discussions” with Iran, while stressing that Iran is currently “in a very bad situation, both economically and militarily.”
IDC: Global PC shipments fell 20.1% year over year in the third quarter. According to the latest preliminary data released by International Data Corporation (IDC), global PC shipments in the third quarter of 2026 were 62.7 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%. This is the second consecutive quarter of decline, and the decline was significantly greater than the 3.8% decline in the second quarter. On a month-on-month basis, shipments in the third quarter were also 9.1% less, and the “third quarter was better than the second quarter” of previous years did not appear this time. The supply side has not abated. Coupled with the fact that manufacturers and channel vendors concentrated on stocking up before the price increase earlier this year, demand was consumed ahead of schedule, and there was little demand left that could be released by the third quarter.
Individual stock news
Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) recorded a record high in Q3 revenue, but high oil prices weighed down profit prospects. Delta's stock price fell sharply before the market on Friday. Financial reports showed that demand for air travel was still strong, and the airline even reported record third-quarter revenue of 17.6 billion US dollars. However, high aviation fuel prices are indeed beginning to have an impact on the entire industry. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.72 were lower than market estimates of $1.77. The company currently expects full-year earnings of between $5.10 and $5.60 per share, lower than the previous range of $6.50 to $7.50, and lower than analysts' general expectations of $5.50. CEO Ed Bastian said the company expects to achieve pre-tax profit of 4.5 billion US dollars this year, but at the same time it will absorb up to 6 billion US dollars in fuel cost increases.
Huge sums took over the low-frequency band, SpaceX (SPCX.US) entered mobile phone operators, and American Telecom stocks fell sharply across the board. SpaceX announced the acquisition of 800MHz low-band spectrum covering the entire United States, and was authorized by the FCC to deploy 15,000 direct-connected mobile phone satellites, officially announcing its independent entry into the US mobile operator market. Affected by this, AT&T (T.US), T-Mobile (TMUS.US), and Verizon (VZ.US) collectively declined before the market. Musk, who has $93.5 billion in cash and 12 million Starlink subscribers, is reshaping the entire telecom industry's competitive landscape with the “last piece of the puzzle.”
Lumentum (LITE.US): Demand for optoelectronic components is strong, and the “capacity sold out” situation will continue until 2029. As technology companies compete to build faster AI data centers, Lumentum said that almost all of its optoelectronic component production capacity has been booked, and the situation will continue until around 2029. Michael Hurlston, CEO of Lumentum, said that next year the company will not be able to meet about 70% of product requirements, and will still be unable to meet 30% until 2028. Hurlston previously said the company is expected to sell out production capacity by 2028.
Apple (AAPL.US) is rumored to be cutting orders for the iPhone 18 Pro due to weak demand. According to a number of people familiar with the matter, due to the sharp rise in the cost of memory chips, Apple has asked some suppliers to cut parts production for the newly released iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Two of them said that Apple's parts orders this month have been cut by at least 15% compared to the initial requirements. Another person familiar with the matter said that this may be related to Apple's adjustment of the iPhone model release plan. Affected by this, Apple's stock price fell nearly 2% in pre-market trading.
GFS.US (GFS.US) and TSM.US reached a $2 billion silicon intermediary layer supply agreement. GF announced on Thursday that it has reached a five-year agreement worth 2 billion US dollars to provide TSMC with production capacity in the US. Under an agreement announced Thursday, GF will help supply components known as “silicon interlayers.” The US chipmaker will rely on its factory in Malta, New York for production, and said it has the option to expand production capacity as customer demand grows.
Starbucks (SBUX.US) declined to comment on the Chipotle (CMG.US) acquisition rumor: it is focusing all its efforts on transforming potential acquisitions or high costs. On Thursday, Starbucks declined to comment on a report that said Starbucks had attempted to acquire Chipotle Mexican Grill. Starbucks said the company is “highly focused” on transformation under CEO Brian Niccol (Brian Niccol). Foreign media previously quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting that Starbucks has cooperated with consultants in recent months to study the potential acquisition of Chipotle. Nicole was in charge of Chipotle for about six years before becoming Starbucks CEO in 2024.
Key economic data and event forecasts
20:30 Beijing time: Changes in the number of people employed in Canada in September.
22:00 Beijing time: The initial value of the US Consumer Confidence Index for October at the University of Michigan.
At 01:00 Beijing time the next day: The total number of US drills for the week ending October 9.
At 04:00 Beijing time the next day: 2028 FOMC voting committee and Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins delivered a speech.