Old National Bancorp (ONB) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading left the share price at US$24.58. The bank’s recent returns present a mixed picture across the past month and the past 3 months.
Recent trading tells a split story for Old National Bancorp. In the short term, the share price has eased, with the stock down 4.21% over 30 days and 6.63% over 3 months. However, the year-to-date share price return of 9% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 22.17% indicate that longer-term momentum has been building.
Scan how Old National Bancorp compares to other regional lenders by reviewing a hand-picked list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (25 results) that have shown resilience in recent market swings.
Old National Bancorp has cooled after a strong 1 year run, so the real puzzle now is whether that pause signals upside still ahead or most of the gains already captured as valuation comes into focus.
Most Popular Narrative: 18% Undervalued
Old National Bancorp’s most followed narrative sets fair value at about $29.93, which is above the recent $24.58 close and puts repricing and capital return in the spotlight.
Repricing of roughly US$8b of fixed rate loans and securities over the next 12 months at yields that are about 60 basis points higher on loans and about 100 basis points higher on securities than the existing book provides a path for Old National Bancorp to improve net interest income and net interest margin.
See why 14 investors see Old National Bancorp as 18% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $29.93 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the Old National Bancorp story can be knocked off course if competition in commercial lending squeezes margins, or if higher credit costs start to erode earnings.
Find out about the key risks to this Old National Bancorp narrative.
Next Steps
Mixed signals or the early stage of a new chapter for Old National Bancorp: either way, the data is already on the table, so move quickly and weigh both the potential upside and the pressure points by reviewing the 6 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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