The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that the A-share market fell short of expectations after the holiday season, and the technology sector became the focus of adjustments. In the short term, it is directly impacted by FCC optical module restrictions and OpenAI's revenue falling short of expectations; the root cause is that A-shares are in the second wave of leverage restructuring, compounded by tight overseas liquidity and geographical disturbances in the Middle East, and risk appetite continues to be under pressure. However, positive signals have begun to accumulate: overseas geopolitics are easing, domestic market stabilization mechanisms are in place, and at the same time, the performance of the technology sector remains strong. If macroeconomic disturbances are mitigated and combined with the performance verification of the three quarterly reports, market expectations are expected to reverse. Defense is prioritized in terms of allocation, and dividend assets are the bottom position; the direction of the boom revolves around the three-quarterly report laying out profit improvement links such as AI computing power, chemical resource products, etc., as well as the new energy sector under the European energy security logic.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
The A-share market fell short of expectations after the holiday season, and the technology sector became the focus of adjustments. After the FOMC rate hike was implemented in mid-September, the global market once ushered in a window of economic recovery. The US stock NASDAQ reached a record high, but A-share technology continued to adjust due to strong capital pressure. The direct reason why the market is lower than expected is that the US FCC plans to limit China's optical module and OpenAI revenue from falling short of expectations. Fundamentally, the first is that the A-share capital structure is weak and is in the midst of a second wave of leverage restructuring; the second is that overseas liquidity is tight, bond interest rates in major global economies continue to rise, and risk-free interest rate centers are suppressing the growth sector through the three channels of valuation discounts, equity and bond price-performance ratio, and financing costs. Third, repeated conflicts in the Middle East and unstable oil price expectations exacerbate uncertainty about global inflation.
Overall, however, positive signals have begun to accumulate. Prioritizing defense and waiting for a turning point is the best strategy at this stage. On the overseas side, Trump stated that he would not use force against Iran before the midterm elections, and the G7 announced a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves; domestically, the performance of the technology sector remained strong, while early adjustments were sufficient, and market stabilization mechanisms were in place. In the future, if austerity expectations are further mitigated and the geographical situation is further mitigated, combined with the verification of the three-quarterly report, market expectations are expected to gradually reverse.
In terms of industry allocation, the defensive direction focuses on dividend assets as the core base, focusing on bank, coal, utilities and Hong Kong stock dividends; the boom direction revolves around the certainty of the three-quarter report layout, including AI hardware computing power and basic chemicals and resource products; and the new energy direction focuses on restarting Europe's energy security logic in the context of rising oil prices.
Focus on: banks, coal, utilities, Hong Kong stock dividends, AI computing power hardware, basic chemicals, new energy, etc.
Risk Alerts
(1) The effect of the domestic demand support policy was lower than expected. If subsequent domestic real estate sales and investment data are slow to recover, inflation continues to be sluggish, consumption is not clearly boosted, corporate profit growth continues to decline, and economic recovery is ultimately falsified, then the overall market trend will be under pressure, and overly optimistic pricing expectations will face correction.
(2) Risk of deterioration of the geographical situation in the Middle East. Be wary of the further escalation of the US-Iran conflict. The upward trend in international oil prices will increase global inflationary pressure and limit the monetary easing space for domestic and foreign central banks. If inflation is viciously interpreted, it may drag down aggregate economic demand, increase the risk of global economic recession, and have an impact on the equity market.
(3) The fluctuations in the US stock market exceeded expectations. If the US economy deteriorates beyond expectations, or if the Federal Reserve's easing falls short of expectations, it may cause large fluctuations in the US stock market, which will also have a spillover effect on domestic market sentiment and risk appetite.