[Editor-in-chief Guan Shi]
There was a lot of empty news in the week after the holiday. Fortunately, it settled down on the last day.
There is a window between the US and Iran. US President Trump publicly stated that the US will not launch an attack on Iran until the November 3 midterm elections. However, the situation became tense in the direction of the Strait of Mander. The attack on Saudi Arabia's Riyadh airport resulted in 12 deaths and 309 injuries. Trump said the US may join the attack on the Houthis and see if there are any escalating actions in the future. The good news is that the US and Russia have reached an agreement that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to the US and global markets, increase to 500,000 tons in November, and supply 1 million tons in December. The goal is to reduce oil prices and pressure inflation.
The annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank began this week. Global growth, inflation, interest rates, and government debt are core topics; the IMF released the “World Economic Outlook” and the “Global Financial Stability Report” at the same time, and the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meetings were held together. Focus on the statements made by US officials.
The second regular meeting of the Sino-European Trade and Investment Consultation Mechanism issued a joint statement, and the two sides reached an understanding on hybrid vehicle trade. However, in the end, it depends on the October 15-16 European Council meeting or discussing trade positions with China. This is the highlight of the week, and it will have a big impact on the automotive industry.
Domestic benefits are worth looking forward to. On Saturday, Wu Qing held a symposium, stressing the need to build a capital market to better return the majority of investors, and also mentioned studying and reserving more incremental policy tools. The Ministry of Finance arranged for the use of local government debt balance limits of 550 billion yuan. When the Hang Seng Index is low, it is easy to induce a rebound.
In terms of hot topics, WeChat officially launched the free skit applet Green Bubble, and many media outlets claimed to be the target for red fruit. PineDrama has reached 100 million downloads, and Byte wants to recreate a red fruit overseas. It is expected to stimulate the short drama industry chain.
There was an outbreak of measles in the US. The number of confirmed cases was the highest since 1991. Plague prevention and control risk tips from the Hulunbuir Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Related vaccines may take action.
Director of the World Food Programme: El Niño is compounding the effects of the war, and a “slow burning” food crisis is forming. If the market is adjusted, it will speculate on agriculture. Price increase concept: Two major leaders announced: price increases for rare earth concentrates.
Note: On October 9, EST, the USITC officially opened a 337 investigation. There are 20 defendants, including Delta, Infineon, MPS, Flextronics, Celestica, Guangda, and Hon Hai, as well as Lixun Precision and Dongguan Lixun Technology. If technology stocks hit a lot, it would be difficult to do.
[This week's gold stocks]
Jingwang Electronics (03228)
Jingwang Electronics (03228) announced that it is expected to achieve net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of RMB 939 million to RMB 1,116 million during the period, up 294.34% to 368.68% year-on-year, and 239.90% to 303.97% month-on-month.
Benefiting from the acceleration of mass production and shipment of high-performance PCBs in the field of high-speed communication and AI data infrastructure, combined with multiple measures such as reasonable cost and price transmission, order structure optimization, and internal cost reduction and efficiency in the general product sector, the Group is expected to achieve year-on-year and relatively rapid growth in revenue and net profit during this period.
By the end of this period, the Group had plenty of orders in hand in the field of AI servers, data centers, and high-speed optical modules, and the production capacity utilization rate and yield were high, and the Group is making every effort to ensure the achievement of delivery targets.
[Industry Watch]
In the past year, along with the continuous upgrading of multi-modal model capabilities, AI content has become the main force in content consumption.
On the model side, model capabilities and prices have gradually matured to large-scale commercialization. From the release of Open AI at the end of 2024, Sora began a wave of AI content creation, to the drastic improvement in Seedance 2.0 capabilities at the beginning of this year, opening up a large amount of space for commercialization of AI content, to Alibaba Wan3.0 and MiniMaxH3 cutting down the cost price of AI content generation, model capabilities and prices have gradually matured to large-scale commercialization.
The supply side continues to explode and its share increases. According to the State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television, 430,000 short dramas were launched nationwide in the first eight months of this year, 13 times that of last year, and AI dramas account for over 90%. The quality of demand-side AI content continues to improve, making it more realistic and smooth, and even difficult to discern real or fake, gradually taking over the daily content consumption of ordinary people.
Tencent WeChat launched the official free short drama mini-program “Green Bubble” in September. Guosheng Securities believes that this is the first time that the WeChat ecosystem has officially entered an AI short drama, which means that Tencent is stepping up this direction while driving industrial prosperity and competition acceleration. This is expected to aggregate the previously scattered skit traffic in the WeChat Mini Program and rely on the WeChat ecosystem to complete the Tencent AI drama portal.
The number of AI skits broadcast continued to rise during the National Day. From September 28 to October 4, Douyin's native AI skit increased 7% month-on-month; as of October 7, 19 of the top 20 hits of Hongguo were AI dramas, while the number of live action skits dropped by about 75% year over year. In addition to AI comics that were popular before, there is now endless content such as AI reality dramas, AI long dramas, AI movies, and AI interactive movie games, such as Mango's “Journey to the West” and Bona's first AI theatrical film “Sanxingdui: The Future Past.”
Hong Kong stocks focus on reading (00772) and redeeming (01753).
[Data View]
According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of outstanding contracts in the Hang Seng Futures Index (October) was 13,3024, and the net number of outstanding positions was 45,238. Hang Seng Futures refers to the settlement date of October 29, 2026.
The Hang Seng Index is at 24,211 points. The area where the upper bears are concentrated is close to the central axis, and the lower bullish market deviates from the central axis. Hong Kong stocks are motivated to go long. US stocks continued to rise, with AI concept stocks leading the way, but the market is worried about the impact of high US interest rates on the banking industry, corporate finance, and real estate markets. The Hang Seng Index is looking to rebound this week.
[Editor's Statement]
Southbound capital “bottomed out” as soon as it returned after the holiday. Net purchases of nearly HK$7 billion were recorded in two trading days. The short selling ratio fell from a high level, and the scale of foreign capital outflows also narrowed markedly. The panic of the previous few days quickly recovered, and market sentiment rose from the bottom to the top.
However, a short-term rebound is a rebound, so don't go too far to chase higher levels. The disturbances in US bond interest rates and oil prices are still ongoing. The peak of lifting the ban at the end of the year is also ahead, and the medium-term restrictions have not been fully lifted. The next few days are likely to continue to fluctuate and diverge. Instead of chasing ups and downs, it is better to adopt the “structural priority” mentality: high dividend dividends stabilize the bottom position, find promising targets in the innovative pharmaceutical, shipping, and AI industry chains, and the consumer sector will have to wait for an inflection point in performance. It is easier to win with less hassle.