The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that Shuangjie Liquor sales are expected to remain under pressure, and it is expected that the performance of most individual liquor stocks in the third quarter will still be under pressure. After a four-year adjustment period, the liquor sector is expected to usher in a new development cycle in 2026. Volkswagen has taken the lead in stabilizing on some sub-tracks in 2025. Looking forward to a moderate rise in industry tonnage prices in 2026, we are optimistic about individual stock opportunities brought by new products and new channels.
The main views of GF Securities are as follows:
Liquor: Be careful when preparing stocks during peak season, and the industry is still in the storage cycle
26Q3 ushered in the peak preparation season for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. The terminal reported that the willingness to prepare goods was relatively weak. The double festival banquet scene was relatively just needed, but the government and commercial consumption scene was still recovering slowly, and sales of liquor during the Double Festival are expected to remain under pressure. At this stage, most wine companies have the main goal of taking the initiative to remove inventory and maintain healthy and healthy channels, and there is no forced pressure on goods. The bank expects the performance of most individual liquor stocks to remain under pressure in the third quarter. It is expected that Kweichow Moutai, Jinjiagongjiu, and Jinhui Liquor will outperform the industry in the third quarter.
Beer: Industry demand is still sluggish, with Yanjing Beer leading the way
The 26Q3 weather was still rainy and disrupted industry demand. The year-on-year decline in beer industry production increased month-on-month in Q2. Yanjing Brewery benefited from reform dividends and the continuous rapid growth and performance of Yanjing U8, leading the industry.
Drinks and dairy products: the leading beverage companies are stable, and leading dairy companies are superior
The 26Q3 revenue performance of beverage company Dongpeng Beverage is expected to continue the Q2 trend, with the profit side benefiting from the cost dividends brought by the previous PET price lock; among dairy companies, Yili Shuangjie is more active in stocking, the performance of room temperature liquid milk is expected to be better than the industry average, the profitability of the new dairy industry in 26Q3 is expected to improve, and the main Miocolanduo 26Q3 cheese business continues to grow well.
Snack chain: Strong mass sales channels, better at manufacturing
In snack volume sales, Wanchen Group's 26Q3 store continued to open at a fast pace, and profitability was strong due to scale; among snack foods, Yanjin Shop and Youyou Foods benefited from mass sales and sales volume, and the revenue side continued to grow rapidly. The main business of wheat and oats was steadily compounded with contributions from new products, and growth is expected to accelerate; Qiaqia Food benefits from melon seed cost dividends, and profit flexibility is high. The profit side of Yanjin and Jinzai Foods is stable, but the profit side is affected or slower than the revenue growth rate due to cost, base and structure.
Condiments: Overall demand is lackluster, focus on cost changes
As a leader, Haitian maintained steady growth. Second-tier brands continued to explore new growth points in terms of products and channels, and Zhonghe and others continued to recover. Increased concentration in the condiment industry is still the main line in the medium term. The leading management system is stable, channel coverage is comprehensive, new product launch is accelerated, and the market share is expected to continue to increase.
Frozen food: stocks pick up during peak season, leading to price increases
Accelerated preparation during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day peak season led to a month-on-month improvement in sales, and competition at low prices in the industry declined. At the same time, against the backdrop of surimi prices continuing to rise, Yasui took the lead in issuing a price adjustment letter to initiate price transmission. It is expected that market share will be concentrated at an accelerated pace, and it is also expected to lead the industry towards more benign development.
Health products: the head tends to be concentrated, and racetrack performance is differentiated
26Q3 expects the overall scale of the industry to continue the 26H1 growth trend, the competitive advantage of leading brands will increase, and sales and share will show an upward trend. The bank believes that under the trend of strict industry supervision, small and medium-sized enterprises are expected to clear up, and leading brands and foundries are expected to seize a larger share. The revenue side of Bailong Chuangyuan is expected to maintain good growth.
Risk warning. Forward-looking estimates have limitations. The macroeconomy falls short of expectations, the recovery of consumption power falls short of expectations, and food safety issues.