The Zhitong Finance App learned that Deutsche Bank recently released a research report saying that the metals and mining industry has performed strongly in the third quarter and since the beginning of the year, mainly driven by a sharp rise in copper prices, but the recent rise in bond yields and the strengthening of the US dollar have put some pressure on the market. The bank updated its forecast for copper prices, aluminum prices and iron ore prices in the report, and listed the preferred targets in the metals and mining industry. Deutsche Bank pointed out that China's Hongqiao (01378) is its preferred aluminum industry target, and mainly values its valuation and potential cash return. Deutsche Bank gave the stock a “buy” rating, and the target price was HK$33.
Update price predictions
Deutsche Bank raised its forecast for copper prices in 2027 from $12,500 per ton to $14,500. Deutsche Bank said that as it explained at the recent copper industry conference, the copper market is facing serious supply constraints due to factors such as rapid accumulation of US inventories, low inventories in other regions of the world, and weak supply. Continued poor performance in global mine production is still a key factor supporting market fundamentals, and incentive pricing mechanisms will continue to exist. US tariff policy remains a key variable in the market. The bank's basic scenario is that uncertainty about the tariff policy will continue to exist, thereby supporting the physical market to remain tight and driving copper prices higher.
Deutsche Bank raised its forecast for aluminum prices in 2027 from $3,000 to $3050 per ton. Deutsche Bank pointed out that in the past 3 to 6 months, aluminum prices have lagged far behind other basic metals. The initial supply shock caused by the war between the US and Iran has now gradually become a distant memory. The bank expects production in the Gulf region to recover steadily over the next six months, while new projects in Indonesia will be put into operation. This will push the market into a state of oversupply next year and put downward pressure on aluminum prices.
Deutsche Bank lowered its forecast for iron ore prices in 2027 from $100 per ton to $98. Deutsche Bank pointed out that iron ore prices continue to be under pressure, and FOB profit margins have fallen to their lowest level since 2019. At the current level of freight and investment costs, quite a bit of high-cost production capacity is at a loss, which should limit the downward space for iron ore prices; at the same time, winter inventory replenishment may provide some price support in the fourth quarter. Due to weak demand and the gradual increase in production at Simandou mine in Guinea, the bank expects iron ore prices to continue to be suppressed near the cost curve in the foreseeable future.
Preferred target pool
Hongqiao, China
Deutsche Bank pointed out that China's Hongqiao (01378) is its preferred aluminum industry target, and mainly values its valuation and potential cash return. Deutsche Bank gave the stock a “buy” rating, and the target price was HK$33.
Anglo Teck
Anglo Teck American Resources Group (Anglo American) and Teck Resources (Teck Resources) plan to establish a new mining company called, which will become one of the world's major copper producers after the merger. The two companies officially announced that they had reached a merger agreement on September 9, 2025. The two sides plan to complete the deal by March 2027 at the latest. Deutsche Bank believes that if this merger is successfully completed, it will create the world's leading listed copper company. Its growth potential is currently underestimated, and there is potential for further revaluation. Deutsche Bank gave the stock a “buy” rating, and the target price was £4,700.
Glencore
Deutsche Bank pointed out that it is still optimistic about Glencore's bottom-up investment logic, including: progress in divestment of assets in the short term should help increase shareholder returns; listing on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) may drive a moderate revaluation of the company's valuation over time; copper production is expected to increase significantly over the next 12 to 18 months; and merger negotiations with Rio Tinto may resume at some point in the future. However, further news about the Radiant World legal dispute remains a key risk factor in the short term. Deutsche Bank gave the stock a “buy” rating, and the target price was £680.
BHP Billiton
Deutsche Bank said that BHP Billiton (BHP.US) has experienced significant revaluation this year, and the current valuation appears to be quite adequate, especially considering the recent weakness in iron ore prices.
McMoRan copper and gold
Among copper mining companies, Deutsche Bank believes that McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX.US) still has an attractive relative value. Production at the Grasberg mine is expected to return steadily to pre-accident levels by the end of 2027. Deutsche Bank gave the stock a “buy” rating, and the target price was $80.
First Quantum Minerals
Deutsche Bank continues to consider First Quantum Minerals' risk-return attractive, although progress in negotiations with the Panamanian government will of course still be a key factor.
