The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the Alibaba-W (09988) FY2027-FY2029 revenue forecast was slightly adjusted to 11286/13068/1515.2 billion yuan, with an adjustment of +0.2%/+0.7%/+2.7%. The adjusted net profit for FY2027-FY2029 was 1032/1334/171 billion yuan, with an adjustment margin of +12%/+10%/+9%, mainly for cloud business growth and improved profit margins. Currently, the company's 2027 PE is 21 times, maintaining a “better than market” rating; the bank believes that FY27Q2 profit elasticity mainly comes from a sharp narrowing of immediate retail losses, cloud business growth, and narrowing AI Lab losses. It is expected that FY27Q3's cloud business+AI Lab as a whole will achieve a break-even balance.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
Recent events
Alibaba is about to release financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027. Alibaba is expected to achieve revenue of 27.2 billion yuan in FY27Q2, +9.1% over the same period last year. The adjusted EBITA for FY27Q2 is expected to be 30.4 billion yuan, +235% year over year, and the adjusted EBITA profit margin was 11.2%, up about 7.6pct year over year. The main reason was that immediate retail losses narrowed sharply, +1.1 pct month-on-month, mainly due to the narrowing of takeout losses, cloud business growth, and narrowing AI Lab losses.
Cloud Intelligence Group
The bank expects FY27Q2 cloud revenue to increase 51% year over year, with external customers growing faster than internal customers and increasing EBITA profit margin to 13% month-on-month. The bank believes that mainly rising computing power rental prices and an increase in the share of high-margin AI cloud services continue to drive margin improvements. Along with the continued growth of cloud business revenue and profit, it is expected that FY27Q3's cloud business+AI Lab as a whole will achieve a break-even balance, and the corresponding cloud business is expected to reach 15% with an adjusted EBITA margin. At the same time, the bank also expects FY28 to maintain high growth, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%.
The company proposed that the data center scale would exceed 20 GW by 2032. The bank expects the capacity of Ali's data center to be about 2 GW in '22, 10 times in 10 years, and about 5 GW in '26, corresponding to an annual increase of 2.5 GW. Based on the calculation of about 30 billion US dollars per GW, the corresponding annual investment will reach 525 billion yuan. However, the company will advance through joint construction with partners, half of which will be borne by itself, so the pressure on the company's cash flow caused by CAPEX corresponding to future annualization of about 260 billion yuan is relatively manageable.
The company continued to make progress on AI this quarter:
1) Model: Qwen3.8-Max enhances code and agent capabilities, and the Omni series promotes full modal interaction. The Yunqi conference released the LiveTranslate and Audio 3.1 series; Qwen4 is still in training, and Qwen4.5 and Qwen5 are the follow-up roadmap.
China E-commerce Group
1) E-commerce: The FY27Q2 CMR is expected to decrease by 5% to 6% year on year according to the disclosure scale and increase by about 1% year on year according to the original caliber, which is the same as the previous quarter, in line with the growth trend of online retail sales. However, the growth gap with the new caliber narrows. The main reason is that this quarter is a low e-commerce season, and marketing-related investment has declined. On the profit side, the adjusted EBITA for domestic e-commerce is expected to remain flat year on year, better than the June quarter performance. Considering domestic and foreign e-commerce as a whole, the adjusted EBITA is expected to be +2%-3% year-on-year, mainly as a result of refined overseas e-commerce operations.
2) Immediate retail sales: FY27Q2's overall loss is expected to be about 9 billion yuan, which is slightly better than the bank's previous expectations. Assuming an average daily order volume of 73 million orders, including flash sales, instant delivery from Hema and Maocao, the corresponding order loss was about 1.4 yuan. The bank expects the company's order volume and customer unit price to increase sequentially this quarter, with the order volume increasing even more.
others
1) AI Lab: AI Lab is expected to lose 10-11 billion yuan this quarter, down from about 14 billion yuan in the previous quarter.
2) All others: All other businesses lost approximately $3 billion, flat from month to month.
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