The Zhitong Finance App learned that in maintaining the profit forecast, the China Financial Insurance (02328) net profit for 2026-28 is expected to be 416.60, 442.04, and 46.691 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 6.1%, and 5.6%. The company has both high dividend dividends and rising prosperity. The valuation ratio is expected to be further released to maintain the “buy” rating; the bank believes that the extension of comprehensive non-vehicle management will raise the compliance threshold and benefit large financial insurance companies., the advantage of risk pricing capabilities Further display is expected.
The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:
Recent events
The Financial Supervisory Authority issued the “Regulations on the Administration of Insurance Product Development for Property Insurance Companies” (Financial Regulations (2026) No. 9, hereinafter referred to as “Regulations”), which will take effect on November 1, 2026, and simultaneously abolish the 2016 “Product Development Guidelines”. The “Regulations” consist of 8 chapters and 41 articles, upgrading the regulatory rules from “guidelines” to “regulations”. This is an important measure for financial insurance supervision and comprehensive management of non-car insurance, and it is also an important gripper for strict supervision and strong supervision.
Sorting out the main points of the “Regulations”: list eight types of prohibited development situations and refine additional insurance development requirements
1) Designate eight categories of prohibited development situations to block supply without actual guarantees or hype about price reduction. 2) A special section is set up for additional insurance policies to list the five types of situations where development is prohibited in principle, and “substituting for the owner” is strictly prohibited. 3) In principle, those requiring industry model clauses or benchmark pure risk loss rates should be used. Non-users must explain the reasons and differences, and users are exempt from submitting a feasibility report. 4) Substantially changing the rate of the registered clause by means of special contracts, approvals, agreements, etc. is prohibited. 5) Compacting principal responsibilities: The main responsible person took the lead in setting up a product management committee. Non-model clauses that have not been used for three consecutive years must be cleaned up and cancelled. The chief compliance officer and chief actuary are each directly responsible for reviewing the terms and rates.
Policy impact analysis: Regulatory extension of comprehensive non-vehicle management, raising the compliance threshold to benefit large financial insurance companies
Section 40 of the “Regulations” clearly states that vehicle insurance, agricultural insurance, marine insurance, policy credit insurance, short-term health insurance, and accident insurance “shall be subject to its provisions”. Therefore, the “Regulations” focus on enterprise financial insurance, liability insurance, engineering insurance, household insurance, freight insurance, and credit guarantee insurance. It is precisely the key commercial non-vehicle sector where the underwriting profit margins of the industry and companies are relatively weak and there is relatively much room for improvement in operations.
1) It is expected to clear up the competitive chaos of product terms and rates in the industry and improve the adequacy of product pricing. As a leading agency, China Financial Insurance is expected to further demonstrate its advantages in risk pricing capabilities. Previously, the mismatch of insurance types of “low main insurance+additional insurance compensation liability” and special adaptations of “filing one package and execution of one set” were the main carriers of irrational competition, but now they have been cut off at the same time. The competition has returned to actuarial pricing and risk reduction, and the leading advantage has become apparent.
2) Full life cycle management is a fixed cost, and the scale dilution effect is remarkable. Combined with the clean-up and cancellation mechanism, the clearance of long-tail homogenized products was accelerated — in January-July 2026, corporate financial insurance re-reporting clauses were reduced by 28,000 compared to before regulation, and employer liability insurance was reduced by more than 600. The processing rates for the two decreased by about 6 and 5 percentage points, respectively, over the same period last year.
3) Formulating and using industry model clauses and benchmarks pure risk loss rates is an important means of improving the standardization and standardization of industry regulations and improving the accuracy and scientific nature of pricing. Currently, there are only a few national documents in the non-vehicle sector, such as the textile industry enterprise financial insurance, road construction project loss rate table, and safety liability insurance standard provisions. The national model clauses for enterprise financial insurance and employer liability insurance are still blank. Focus on the pace of publication of model clauses and loss rate tables for major non-vehicle insurance types by industry associations and actuaries associations. This benefit has changed from policy dividends to key variables in reporting dividends.
Analysis of the company's financial impact: Updated guidelines to help further stabilize the company's profits on commercial non-vehicle insurance underwriting
At the 2025 annual results conference, the company updated its non-vehicle guidelines: striving to reduce the comprehensive cost ratio (COR) of non-car insurance to less than 100% in fiscal 2026 through optimization of the non-car insurance fee structure, tilting the business structure towards more profitable insurance types, and weakening the drag effect of the agricultural insurance business. The COR of 1H26's non-auto insurance business fell from 95.7% in the previous year to 94.6% in the current period. The bank assumes that after the full implementation of this series of comprehensive non-vehicle insurance policies, the annualized comprehensive cost rate for the non-car insurance business will be reduced by about 3 percentage points, and the corresponding increases in underwriting profit for the 2026-28 financial year will be 4.23, 20.3, and 1,852 billion yuan (after considering the earned effects), and is concerned about the continuation of subsequent improvements in underwriting rates and actual cost rates.
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