According to Woofun AI, the cash side of the spot Bitcoin ETF suddenly stagnated after experiencing huge inflows totaling $1.7 billion for two days from September 21 to 22. This sharp contrast from fanaticism to silence has left the market with huge doubts about the sustainability of subsequent institutional demand. In particular, when the Bitcoin price rebounded above $83,000 during the night, whether ETF investors followed up on their purchases became a key observation point.
The evolutionary trajectory of capital flows clearly reveals this fluctuating process. Data tracking agency SosoValue records that on September 21, the fund attracted an inflow of US$999 million and received another US$7148 million the next day, with a cumulative net inflow of US$56.87 billion.
However, this strong momentum came to an abrupt end on September 30, when there was a net outflow of US$148.7 million on the same day. Although a brief return of $102.7 million and $189.8 million was recorded on October 1 and 2, respectively, demand declined significantly over the next 13 trading days. Among them, the largest outflow occurred from October 7 to 8, totaling US$731.2 million.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, in these 13 trading days, the net inflow was only US$232 million, far lower than the previous peak period. This financial contraction is directly reflected in the size of assets. The total net assets of the fund fell from US$110.77 billion on October 5 to US$105.84 billion on October 9, with a net outflow of US$591 million during this period. Price declines are thought to be the main cause of the contraction in net assets.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT (IBIT.US) has shown absolute dominance in terms of the institutional holding pattern. Of the total net worth of $105.84 billion, IBIT has an exclusive share of $66.3 billion, or about 63%. In contrast, Grayscale's cumulative net outflow of GBTC (GBTC.US) has reached US$27.94 billion and continues to face redemption pressure. Recent market performance was further divided, with a total inflow of only $21.13 million on Friday, of which IBIT absorbed $22.38 million, while Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC.US) had a net outflow of $3.58 million.
Of the 12 related funds, 9 had zero daily fund flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs overall showed a net outflow of US$681 million last week, ending the previous three-week net inflow trend; in the same period, the spot Ethereum ETF from October 5 to 9 also recorded a net outflow of US$542 million. Trading activity was also sluggish. The total trading value on Friday was only $1.44 billion, a 13-day low, far below the peak of $3.18 billion on September 8.
The current market sentiment is still in a cautious range. The fear and greed index monitored by CoinGecko is 39, indicating that investors are generally pessimistic. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold 6.38% of the total value of the Bitcoin market, and the flow of funds is a core measure of institutions' willingness to buy. Without continued support from ETF funds, the rebound in Bitcoin's price will be difficult to maintain. At the beginning of this month, data released by Glassnode indicated that the price retracement was mainly due to lower trading volume. The data to be released on Monday will be a key signal to reveal whether institutions will re-enter the market, determining whether the market will continue to consolidate or start a new round of growth.