The Zhitong Finance App learned that in October, signs of elimination in the pig industry chain continued to increase: on the one hand, leading pig companies took the initiative to reduce sow production capacity, and piglet prices and breeding profits continued to bottom out; on the other hand, sow breeding was still declining in September, but the extent of removal was narrower than in August. According to the data, in September, Yongyi and Steel Union's sow stocks declined by 0.52% and 0.86%, respectively. Combined, the cumulative elimination in July-August has exceeded 6.5%, and the annual production capacity reduction is expected to reach 10%. As the breeding stock of sows continues to decline for many months, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to decrease substantially from the second quarter of next year, and the upward inflection point of pig prices is approaching.
Overall, pig prices did not form a trending upward trend in the third quarter. Under a pattern of repeated shocks, profit pressure on the breeding side continued to be too high. According to the data, the average price of pigs sold nationwide in the second quarter of 2026 was 9.47 yuan/kg, and the average price rebounded to 10.73 yuan/kg in the third quarter, up 13.31% from the previous year. However, due to the high base of the previous year, it fell sharply by 22.08% year on year, and the overall industry is still in a weak range of the cycle. According to industry estimates, the average monthly loss of the self-breeding and self-supporting model in the third quarter reached 159.85 yuan/head, and the industry's deep loss trend is clear.
Muyuan Co., Ltd., Zhengbang Technology, Tianbang Foods, and Lihua Co., Ltd. all had higher sales volume in the first three quarters of 2026 than the same period last year, but sales revenue all declined year-on-year, and “no increase in revenue growth” is still the main trend in the current market. Among them, Muyuan Co., Ltd. sold 58.73 million commercial pigs in the first three quarters, up 2.45% year on year; sales revenue was 76.817 billion yuan, down 25.72% year on year. Zhengbang Technology's pig sales increased by 41.48% in the first three quarters, and sales revenue fell by about 5.3% year on year.
According to the latest sales report, Muyuan Co., Ltd. sold about 6.42 million commercial pigs in September, up 15.24% year on year; the average sales price of commercial pigs was about 10.36 yuan/kg, down 19.57% year on year; achieved sales revenue of about 8.520 billion yuan, down 6.01% year on year. Wen's Co., Ltd. sold 2.9883 million pork heads in September, a year-on-year decrease of 10.13%; achieved sales revenue of 4,056 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.47%. By the end of September 2026, Muyuan Co., Ltd. was able to breed 2,974 million sows, a decrease of 139,000 from 3.1113 million at the end of June. The cumulative decrease in the third quarter was about 4.5%, and the phased target of falling below 3 million heads was achieved.
The price of piglets is the core weather vane for the industry's future market expectations and enthusiasm for breeding. In September, the average monthly price of piglets was 142.30 yuan/head, down 19.84% month-on-month and plummeted 49.32% year-on-year, and fell sharply year-on-year and month-on-month. The room for incremental pig sales will continue to shrink in the future. The fourth quarter market was dominated by weak structural recovery, with no trending bull market; in the medium to long term, as production capacity reduction continues to be implemented, the supply and demand pattern of the pig market will be further optimized in 2027, and the industry's profit recovery window is expected to gradually open.
Great Wall Securities pointed out that the industry was still in a deep loss range in the first half of the year, but signs of loss of production capacity have appeared, and sow breeding stocks continued to decline. In the second half of the year, preparations for the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day and the peak pickling season at the end of the year are expected to lead to a recovery in demand, and pig prices may usher in a moderate recovery.
Huachuang Securities said that with reference to multi-dimensional data such as breeding sows and piglets, judging from a rhythmic perspective, it is expected that the significant effects of supply contraction or the probability of a profitable inflection point in pig prices will appear in 2027Q2, but the current sector valuation is low, so it is recommended to pay attention to allocation opportunities in the pig sector.
Related concept stocks:
Muyuan Co., Ltd. (02714): Muyuan Co., Ltd. sold about 6.42 million commercial pigs in September, up 15.24% year on year; the average sales price of commercial pigs was about 10.36 yuan/kg, down 19.57% year on year; achieved sales revenue of about 8.520 billion yuan, down 6.01% year on year.
Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419): In August 2026, the Group sold 935,030,000 heads of commercial pork, with sales revenue of RMB 1,325 billion; the average sales price of the Group's commercial pork was RMB 10.94 yuan/kg, up 4.79% from July 2026. For the eight months ended August 31, 2026, the Group sold a total of 7.762.93 million heads of commercial pork, with commercial pork sales revenue of RMB 10.740 billion.
COFCO Jiajiakang (01610): Achieved operating income of 8.736 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; net loss before adjustment of fair value of biological assets was 1,095 million yuan, compared with net profit of 203 million yuan for the same period last year. The decline in performance was mainly affected by lower pig sales prices and active downsizing risk in the meat import business.