The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that from a global investment perspective, the combination of holding US AI technology stocks and gold may be a hedging combination, but for domestic investors, A-share technology stocks do not have an advantage in the technology contraction process. At this time, the energy sector, which is less sensitive to interest rates and has dividend attributes, has instead become a better alternative. Gold is the dominant asset in the next scenario, and what we can look for now is an energy chain where demand is less sensitive to interest rates and the supply side has changed greatly. Based on this, the bank suggests focusing on: First, the energy chain represented by petroleum, oil transportation, and coal will continue to benefit from global demand for energy reserves, and is also an asset with dividend properties. Second, against the backdrop of a slowing trend in the AI industry and differences in fundamentals, the forecast for the October interest rate hike has declined sharply, interest rate suppression on real interest rates has gradually eased, and gold is entering an allocation period.
Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:
Behind the divergence of Chinese and US tech stocks: valuations converged under the pressure of fundamental expectations
Recently, there has been a clear divergence in the performance of Chinese and US technology stocks. The direct trigger behind this is concerns about future fundamentals caused by the risk of potential sanctions represented by the US FCC, which has led to suppression of valuations. At the same time, it is also fueled by the fact that the domestic trading structure is still crowded. Currently, after A-share technology stocks have been drastically adjusted, the stock price/valuation reflects investors' concerns about the future fundamentals of A-share technology stocks, but it's hard to say that the full price in: the valuation of A-share technology stocks is still not cheap enough, even higher than US stocks: (1) Judging from its own valuation level, the PE TTM valuation quantile for the growing sector represented by optical modules, PCBs, and computing power chips is still above 60%, while the PB valuation fraction is still higher, at more than 85%. Although dynamic valuation may be reasonable, and the ROE level is currently improving, this also means that higher requirements are being placed on future fundamental assumptions, and the basis for this assumption is facing various uncertainties. (2) Compared with US stocks: Currently, the valuation of A-share technology stocks is still higher than that of US stocks. PB is slightly higher and PE is far higher. Looking at the segment segment: the PB valuation of A-share optical modules/PCBs is still far higher than that of US stocks; the PE valuation of A-share AI chips is far higher than that of US stocks. In the past, the extremely scarce boom of Chinese technology stocks compared to A-shares was the driving force behind their past excess earnings and faster appreciation; however, during the period of global technology contraction, it also became a hidden concern about future trends in global technology stocks from the perspective of horizontal comparison.
Two trends in the future US AI investment cycle
Currently, US stocks have also begun to face their own problems after reaching new highs: profits began to diverge due to differences in calculation caliber, represented by OPEN AI's revenue ($50 billion vs. 70 billion US dollars). Although both optimistic and pessimistic people hold their own opinions, it is clear that the future trend of US AI technology stocks is also highly uncertain. The bank discussed the situation: First, if the fundamentals of US technology stocks are proven to be unproblematic, then stock prices will return to strength. For A-shares, the bank believes that there may also be a recovery after a sharp decline, but the extent is not too great, and the probability is weaker than that of US stocks. The reason is as follows: (1) The fundamental mapping relationship between Chinese and US technology stocks has weakened. The core behind this is that US technology stocks have previously siphoned global investment capital → redistributed profits after focusing on future returns, so that profits from the global AI industry chain can flow back to the mainland of the US to support longer-term investment needs. This is an inevitable choice in scenarios where overseas profit retention is scarce. Therefore, even though the FCC has not been implemented, as long as it has not been implemented, it will suppress China's fundamental expectations on sectors entering the US industrial chain represented by optical modules. (2) Problems at the transactional level are still unresolved. A-share technology stocks showed a clear recovery after a sharp decline this Friday (2026-10-09). The main reason behind this is that ETF/market equalization funds have bottomed out. Because the current financing guarantee ratio has returned to near the previous low, the need to maintain market stability is increasing. But even so, the concentration of chips in public funds and countertrend operations was the biggest factor limiting the rebound: in the process of a weak rebound in technology stocks since the end of July, public funds showed obvious countertrend operations in the electronics and communications sector, which were heavy in Q2, that is, they reduced their positions during the rebound and slightly increased their positions when they fell. Second, if there is a problem with the fundamentals of US technology stocks, it may be more difficult for A-share technology stocks to stand alone under the downward trend of US technology stocks. Under such circumstances, the siphoning effect of US AI on global capital will decline, and the upward pressure on real interest rates will ease. Combined with the sharp drop in expectations for the October interest rate hike, the upward pressure from nominal interest rates will also ease. At this time, opportunities for gold allocation may instead arrive. Therefore, from a global investment perspective, the combination of holding US AI technology stocks and gold may be a hedging combination, but for domestic investors, A-share technology stocks do not have an advantage in the technology contraction process. At this time, the energy sector, which is less sensitive to interest rates and has dividend attributes, has instead become a better alternative.
Domestic demand: A potential hedging option, with positive changes in the short term but also concerns
In the context of high overseas interest rates and the divergence of technology between China and the US, in addition to energy+gold, domestic demand is also a potential hedging area for investors who don't want to leave the market or are unable to leave the market: (1) On the one hand, after continuous adjustments over the past few years, the dividend rate of the consumer sector is already quite impressive, and even the dividend rate of some segments has surpassed that of banks. (2) On the other hand, the policy has also been actively strengthened recently: this Friday, the Ministry of Finance set a policy of “increasing countercyclical adjustment and strengthening the expansion of domestic demand”. The physical infrastructure workload is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, which will have a certain supporting effect on domestic demand. However, domestic demand currently also has some concerns: the September PMI data shows strong supply and weak demand, and the actual weakening may not be over, which limits the sustainability of stock price performance.
Configuration ideas under the comprehensive defense approach
Since the bank proposed an active defense, the market has cooled down markedly; since the bank proposed a full defense, the temperature of the market has begun to drop further. The difference between active defense and comprehensive defense is that the former is aware of market risks but is still looking for assets with excessive returns; the latter is an asset allocation that mainly focuses on preventing downside risks. For overseas investors, holding US stocks of Tech+ Gold can still achieve effective hedging, but this is not true for domestic investors. Gold is the dominant asset in the next scenario, and what we can look for now is an energy chain where demand is less sensitive to interest rates and the supply side has changed greatly. Based on this, the bank suggests focusing on: First, the energy chain represented by petroleum, oil transportation, and coal will continue to benefit from global demand for energy reserves, and is also an asset with dividend properties. Second, against the backdrop of a slowing trend in the AI industry and differences in fundamentals, the forecast for the October interest rate hike has declined sharply, interest rate suppression on real interest rates has gradually eased, and gold is entering an allocation period.
Risk warning: Geographic conflicts continue to escalate; AI industry trends ushered in major breakthroughs.