The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that since September 2026, the lithium battery sector as a whole has shown a trend of adjustment and differentiation. Production schedules in the entire industry chain have remained high but stock price performance is weak, and most segments have failed to continue the rebound trend. The monthly rise and fall of lithium copper foil in the same month was 9%, making it the only segment in the sector with a significant increase. Trading in the new energy and technology growth sector showed significant differentiation this month. Most sectors in this period are in the middle of the 3-year history. Among them, the segmented valuation of lithium iron phosphate cathodes, lithium copper foil, and new energy vehicles exceeds 80%. In 2026, lithium batteries welcomed major increases in volume and price, combined with breakthroughs in new technology, etc., and the industrial chain boom was diversified. The core focus is on leading and strong second-line battery cell factories, price-increasing materials such as diaphragms, steel and aluminum foil, anodes, VC, etc., and new technology companies such as solid state and sodium electricity.
Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:
New energy vehicles: Europe's boom continued in August, China continued to improve, and US demand was under pressure
In August 2026, the global NEV market continued to grow, and regional performance continued to diverge. The growth momentum in the European market is steady, sales in the Chinese market continue to recover and grow, the year-on-year decline in the US market has intensified, and demand recovery is still weak. According to data from the Passenger Federation and others, sales of new energy vehicles in China, 10 European countries, and the US reached 142/61 million units in August, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +16%/+35%/36%, respectively, and the penetration rate reached 64%/53%/8%. China's sales volume increased 16% year on year in August, continuing the June trend, mainly driven by the full implementation of automobile trade-in policies, intensive new product launches by car companies, and the continued increase in the penetration rate of new energy sources: European sales growth continued to exceed expectations, mainly driven by the continuation of multi-country subsidy policies and the release of demand during the policy window period: the US fell 36% year on year in August. Affected by policy uncertainty and declining subsidies, demand recovery is still relatively weak.
Energy storage: Domestic installed capacity slowed in August, and the pace at which US storage was connected to the grid fluctuated
In August 2026, the country added 13 GWH of energy storage installed, +3% year over year, and began to slow down after a continuous recovery in June and July; the cumulative installed capacity from January to August was 98 GWh, cumulative year-on-year +53%, and the cumulative growth rate continued to be significantly higher than the annual forecast. The resilience of domestic energy storage demand and the pace of project implementation were better than expected. On the US side, the largest storage capacity in August was 2 GWH, -38% YoY and -23% month-on-month, mainly affected by the high base of large-scale long-term energy storage projects being put into operation in June. The number of grid-connected projects was basically the same, but the scale and average energy storage time of individual projects declined; 23 GWh were connected to the grid from January to August, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -7%, which is still lower than the +33% growth forecast for the whole year.
Lithium battery production schedule: The production boom continued at a high level in October, with an increase of 0% to 5%, and a year-on-year increase of 35% to 59%
The cumulative production of battery/cathode/anode/diaphragm/electrolyte increased by 54%/54%/48%/49%/59%, respectively. Among them, the cumulative electrolyte reached a maximum of 59% year on year, and the cumulative total of batteries and cathode all exceeded 50% year on year. Overall, the lithium battery industry chain production schedule continued to grow in October from the high level in September, but the overall month-on-month growth rate slowed, mainly due to material shortages.
Lithium battery price: In September, the price of the lithium battery industry chain continued to be structurally differentiated. The overall performance was “lithium salt cathode weakening and electrolyte auxiliary materials rising”
In terms of upstream resource products, lithium carbonate declined markedly with the end of maintenance and rapid recovery in supply. Lithium helium oxide was dragged down by declining demand for lithium salts and weak demand for medium to high nickel, and electrolytic cobalt also declined due to weak demand. The midstream cathode is under overall pressure. Three yuan is being dragged down by declining raw materials and lower orders, while lithium iron is mainly affected by the rapid decline in lithium carbonate. The overall strength of electrolytes, supported by demand and cost transmission during peak seasons. DMC increased the most. Lithium hexafluorophosphate and LiFSi rose simultaneously; supply and demand for copper foil were tight, and processing costs continued to rise. Overall, the weakening of lithium salt and cathode in September coexisted with tight local supply and demand for electrolytes and steel foil.
New technology: policies guide catalytic trends and the direction of high-performance new technologies
On September 28, the “15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the New Battery Industry” of seven departments anchors the large-scale application of all-solid-state batteries in 2030, clarifying the collaborative route of lithium batteries and sodium electric/liquid flow. The main line of the industry shifts from capacity expansion to technology upgrading, and concentrates on the pattern of accelerating barrier rise, which favors leading leaders, as well as the direction of solid state, energy storage, sodium electricity, and high-end materials and equipment.
Risk Alerts
Demand for new energy vehicles falls short of expectations, demand in the energy storage market falls short of expectations, risk of European and US policy sanctions, etc.