German short-term treasury yields are becoming more resilient to energy shocks, which means they are more likely to decline in the long run. European gas prices continued to rise over the past week, breaking through the multi-year high set in September. However, the short-term fluctuations in the German yield curve were weak. In fact, the correlation between German two-year treasury bond yields and gas prices has fallen to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Iranian conflict. The short-term trend of the Eurozone yield curve is becoming more stable. The situation in France is turbulent, and the market believes that policy interest rates are at the upper limit of the neutral range, and traders are unwilling to bet more on the ECB's tightening of monetary policy. Inventories were low before winter, the conflict between Iran and Ukraine had no obvious signs of resolution, and there was room for further upward growth in natural gas prices.

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