The Zhitong Finance App learned that on October 13, 2026, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the results of the “Auto Dealer Inventory” survey for September 2026: The comprehensive inventory coefficient for car dealers in September was 1.68, up 6.3% from the previous month and 24.4% from the previous year.
Inventory factors increased year-on-year and month-on-month in January and September
The “Golden Nine” car market did not have enough success in September. On the demand side, consumer confidence is weak and car purchase decisions tend to be cautious. Consumers wait for the National Day Auto Show or year-end promotion points, and the transaction cycle lengthens; car purchase subsidies, terminal price cuts, and financial concessions are implemented in turns throughout the year, weakening the scarcity of traditional peak season offers, and the market's expectations for the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” exclusive policy dividends have clearly declined. On the supply side, car companies concentrated on starting the pre-year-end impetus in September, intensively launching new products at all price ranges. Many brands simultaneously launched limited-time terminal concessions, compounded local automobile consumption subsidies in many places, forming a two-way increase in the supply and promotion policies of new cars. Affected by multiple factors, the market has picked up marginally since the third week of September. Terminal-to-store leads and orders have improved, but terminal sales are under pressure, and dealer inventories have continued to rise.
According to data from the Passenger Federation Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the national passenger car market retailed 1.618 million vehicles in September, and it is estimated that car dealers had a total inventory of about 2.7 million vehicles at the end of September, which also confirms that due to sluggish terminal sales, channels are under further pressure. Overall, the peak season for the car market in September is limited.
2. High-end luxury and imported inventory factors declined month-on-month, while joint ventures and independent brands increased month-on-month
The inventory coefficient for high-end luxury and imported brands was 1.54, and the inventory coefficient decreased by 20.2% month-on-month; the inventory coefficient for joint venture brands was 1.90, up 9.8% month-on-month; the inventory coefficient for independent brands was 1.60, up 10.3% month-on-month.
The brand with the highest inventory depth in March and September
According to the survey, there were a total of 9 brands whose inventory depth of mainstream brands was greater than 2 months in September. They are ranked by inventory depth from highest to lowest: Dongfeng Honda, Guangzhou Automobile, Xiaopeng Motors, Dongfeng Yipai, FAW Hongqi, FAW Volkswagen, Dongfeng Nissan, Jaguar Land Rover, and Pentium.
4. Carefully anticipate market demand in October 2026 and reasonably control inventory
Passenger car sales in October are expected to increase slightly compared to September, at a pace of “rising during the holidays and falling back after the holidays”. The National Day holiday was combined with the 11th Auto Show to drive a recovery in passenger traffic and orders. Terminal promotions are in line with a new round of automobile consumption subsidies that have been implemented in many places to jointly activate early wait-and-see demand; regions such as Henan, Tianjin, Nanjing, and Xining simultaneously launched consumer promotion initiatives, and policy dividends resonate with the effects of the exhibition. Policy subsidies combined car companies' year-end impulses to support a month-on-month improvement in sales throughout the month, but the market faced downward pressure after the holiday season.
The China Automobile Dealers Association suggests that dealers should rationally estimate market demand and reasonably control inventory levels according to the actual situation. At the same time, it is necessary to increase publicity on “trade-in and end-of-life renewal policies”, boost consumer confidence by strengthening services, put cost reduction and efficiency first, and prevent business risks.