Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) reports third-quarter earnings Tuesday before the bell, with CEO David Solomon facing a question: can Wall Street’s extraordinary trading boom last?
Goldman shares have fallen about 22% from their July high. Analysts expect earnings of about $13 per share on revenue near $16.8 billion, down from $20.98 and $20.34 billion last quarter.
On Polymarket, traders give Goldman a 43% chance of reporting GAAP earnings above $16.41 per share, a fixed threshold well above current forecasts. Goldman beat estimates by 45% last quarter, earning $20.98 against expectations of $14.47.
Meanwhile, traders on Kalshi are betting on which words Solomon and his team will use during the earnings call.
What Kalshi Predicts Goldman Will Say
“Uncertainty” leads at 85%, followed by “Tailwind” at 84%. AI infrastructure financing offers a potential tailwind for Goldman, but Solomon warned in September that some financing structures carry greater credit risks than their investment-grade ratings suggest.
“Private Credit” trades at 84%. Goldman Sachs Private Credit Corp. reported withdrawal requests of just 2.03% in Q3 and fulfilled them all, while rival Blue Owl Credit Income Corp. received requests totaling 16.8% and capped withdrawals at 5%. Goldman’s fund also attracted $400 million in gross new subscriptions.
“Capital Solutions” sits at 65%. Goldman created the division last year to connect companies seeking financing with investors providing capital. The business combines Goldman’s investment banking expertise with its growing private-credit operations, allowing the firm to arrange financing without necessarily keeping the loans on its own balance sheet.
“Pipeline” trades at 64%. Solomon acknowledged in September that private-equity dealmaking had recovered more slowly than expected, with firms reluctant to sell investments below their 2020 and 2021 valuations.
“Innovator” sits at 56%. Goldman acquired ETF manager Innovator Capital Management in April, adding approximately $31 billion in assets. Goldman’s planned acquisition of NEOS Investments would make it a top-eight active ETF provider, expanding a business less dependent on trading.
What Kalshi Predicts Goldman Will Skip
“SpaceX” trades at 45%. Goldman helped underwrite the record $85.7 billion June IPO of Elon Musk’s space company, but the offering’s underwriting revenue belongs to Q2 rather than the quarter being reported.
“Iran / Middle East” sits at 30%. Volatility surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict helped Goldman’s equities trading revenue jump 72% year over year last quarter, yet traders largely expect the conflict to go unnamed.
Reading the Board
Solomon warned in September that fixed-income trading was softening and non-compensation expenses would rise by more than $500 million.
Reuters Breakingviews reported Monday that analysts expect Goldman’s trading revenue to grow 30% year over year in Q3, but forecast an 8% decline in the bank’s overall earnings next year.
Benzinga Pro data show options imply a 4.32% post-earnings move in either direction, equivalent to roughly $11.4 billion in market value.
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