[Anatomy Dashboard]
Now the whole world is in shambles. Naturally, the stock market isn't much better. Let's not say our stock market is bad; today Korea has also fallen into disrepair. Comparatively speaking, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were quite OK. They both broke out of a V-shaped rebound, and Hong Kong stocks rose slightly by 0.3%.
Although there is no direct confrontation between the US and Iran, the Saudi side seems to have stabbed the wasp's nest. They wanted to support the Yemeni government forces in fighting the Houthis. They felt stable, and it felt stable. It didn't help, and the US was standing behind; I didn't expect it to happen. At the end of the day, it's a civil war, and it's not easy to get involved, and America doesn't want to be dragged down by the Houthis anymore. The Saudi airport in Riyadh has now been bombed, and the closure has been extended until Saturday, with heavy losses. On the other side, relations between Russia and the US have eased, and they are full of ambition, and they have stepped up their attacks on Ukraine. Global shipping is a complete mess.
The share of crude oil transportation costs in the Middle East region has soared from 1%-3% of the normal level to more than 25%-30% of the total cost. Global tanker capacity is extremely scarce, and the rent for a single ship has risen to the level of “beyond the sky-high price of launching a space rocket.” On Monday, EC2611, the main futures contract of the consolidated index (European line), closed up 1.36%, and the one-month contract rose 1%-3%. COSCO HNA (01138) and Dexiang Shipping (02510) rose more than 4%, Haifeng International (01308) and Dongfang Overseas International (00316) surpassed 3%, and the oil and gas categories CNPC (00857) and Kunlun Energy (00135) both rose 3%.
The impetus for today's V-shaped rebound comes from broad base. E-Fangda's GEM ETF sold over 5.7 billion yuan in half a day (less than 4.8 billion yuan yesterday); the Huaxia Shanghai Securities Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF sold more than 5 billion yuan in half a day (less than 6.2 billion yuan yesterday); the China Southern China Securities A500 ETF traded 3.176 billion yuan in half a day, which is close to yesterday's full-day turnover; China Southern China Securities 1000 ETF traded over 2.8 billion yuan in half a day, exceeding 2,688 billion yuan yesterday. Similar to the situation last Friday, the main focus is on finance.
There was a rebound in the technology direction in individual directions, mainly related performance incentives. Yesterday evening, Lianxun Instrument (688808.SH) and Yuanjie Technology (688498.SH), the two major optical communication concept stocks, both announced high performance growth. Unicom Instruments expects net profit for the first three quarters of 2026 to increase by 1866.00% year-on-year to 2072.95%. Yuanjie Technology expects the company's net profit to increase by 578.85% to 659.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026. It led Cambridge Technology (06166) to increase by more than 2%; Haiguang Xinzheng (01191) exhibited self-developed silicon 1.6T optical modules and 6.4T NPO at the 27th China International Optoelectronics Fair. The order guidelines were filled in 2027. In the second half of the year, 1.6T optical modules were shipped to leading overseas AI computing power customers, up more than 5%.
However, be careful. Today, the Korean Composite Index fell more than 7% in the intraday period, and the Korea Exchange once initiated the SIDECAR mechanism and suspended KOSPI programmatic sales. Samsung Electronics fell more than 7%, and SK Hynix fell by more than 10%; the reason was that China's Changxin had a new breakthrough in storage and plans to launch a new server storage product by the end of 2026, with higher storage density, and the harsh “casino theory” of the CEO of Broadcom. I don't think the technical hardware is clear yet.
The direction of AI software is good. On October 12, Kingdee International (00268) revealed business developments for the nine months and the third quarter ending September 30, 2026, with impressive results. In the first three quarters of this year, the annual recurring revenue (ARR) of subscription services was about 4.604 billion yuan, an increase of about 19.3% over the previous year; the contract amount for AI native products reached 1.02 billion yuan. The increase was due to increased customer demand for AI-native products such as Lingee. The net increase in ARR in a single quarter in the third quarter increased by about 46.9% year over year. In terms of customer structure, in the third quarter, Kingdee successively won a number of leading industry orders, including CRRC, Changan Automobile, China Everbright Group, Huazhu Group, and Sunshine Zhiwei, covering various fields such as high-end equipment manufacturing, automobiles, finance, hospitality, cultural tourism, and new energy operation and maintenance. The net renewal rates (NDR) for the three AI+SaaS products of Kingdee AI Xinghan, AI Starry Sky, and AI Star reached 101%, 97%, and 95% respectively. Renewal rates remained high. After the introduction of the AI package, existing customers had strong product stickiness and willingness to buy more, up more than 5%.
On October 12, the 2026 Paris Motor Show kicked off. This year's Paris Motor Show attracted about 20 Chinese car brands to participate, including BYD and Chery. The number of participating Chinese brands doubled compared to 2024. Chinese and European automakers are expected to launch as many as 60 new models at this year's auto show. Geely Auto (00175) Group's three major brands, Geely, Lynk & Krypton, appeared for the first time in a group lineup. Although the EU plans to restrict imports of hybrid vehicles from China, this is not expected to stop Chinese automobile companies from continuing to expand their European business. BYD's automobile plant in Hungary is preparing for production, and Spain is also a potential destination for future European expansion. Chery Automobile (09973) has started an automobile assembly business in Barcelona, Spain. Geely is also advancing plans to use Ford's factory in Spain to produce cars. Geely (00175) rose nearly 3%.
The 16th China International Aerospace Expo will be held in Zhuhai from December 7 to 13, 2026. There will be more than 1,100 exhibitors, accounting for about 10% of the “first exhibition” and “debut” exhibits. China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) received a total of 55 new shipbuilding orders for type 8 ships in the first half of this year. The order schedule is until 2030. The shipbuilding industry's boom continues to rise, rising more than 3%.
Vietnam's 384/2026/NĐ-CP law will be implemented on January 1, 2027. The core is to prevent “simple assembly and impersonate made in Vietnam” and mark “Made in Vietnam”. Either the tax code changes or the local value-added value is greater than 30%. It is beneficial to companies that have already set up localized supply chains and supporting parts factories in Vietnam: it is less difficult to meet the standards. After the new regulations are implemented, they can obtain the Vietnamese origin label steadily, and the compliance advantage is prominent. Yuyuan Group (00551): A leader in the footwear industry. Vietnam has built a factory for many years, and the local supply chain for uppers and accessories is mature. From August to September, operations have improved markedly, up nearly 7%; Shenzhou International (02313): Leading textile and garment manufacturer. The Vietnamese factory has a high degree of localization of fabric support and spinning weaving, and the pressure to meet the standards is low, up nearly 4%.
Big spending is relatively resistant to decline. Some outsiders are optimistic about Macau gaming stocks. Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China Limited (01928) rose more than 3%; Yum China (09987) bought back shares in Hong Kong and the US, and has already repurchased 8,707,585 shares, accounting for an increase of nearly 3% of the total number of shares authorized to be repurchased.
What is more prominent is that Sipni (02583)'s medium-term profit increased by 75%. On September 10, the world's first pure gold smart ring was launched to achieve the commercial implementation of the “pure gold+smart” product model. Its subsidiary Shenzhen Jinling Artificial Intelligence Co., Ltd. launched the Jinling Jewelry Store AI retail smart device to provide AI enabled smart retail solutions. The Shenzhen Shuibei gold and jewelry industry accelerates AI transformation. The company is betting on the “precious metals+sensor+big model” smart wearable circuit to launch a retail-only AI smart device that can recover 30% to 50% of hidden losses. However, the sales ban period for controlling shareholders and pre-listing shareholders will expire on September 29. In total, the lifting of the ban involves about 87.51% of the issued shares. The ban was lifted and the gap was exhausted, and there was financial speculation, which surged by more than 17%.
The value of TapTap by Xindong Company (02400) is undervalued, and AI creation equality clearly benefits the platform. The company released the AI creation platform TapTap Maker in January. Up to now, it has launched more than 6,000 games. The user retention and length of time for Maker games are higher than those on the platform market. Since 2026, the game's monthly edition numbers have repeatedly reached new highs. 2027 is expected to see intensive new product launches to drive a recovery in TapTap's advertising revenue, including high-investment products from leading manufacturers such as Tencent and NetEase. Recently, the focus is on Miha's “Starry Valley” 2026 winter and NetEase's “Infinity” (January 2027). According to the company's results, there is upward pressure on the tax rate in the future, but AI investment is expected to drop sharply in the second half of the year. TapTap expects profits to improve, rising nearly 4%.
[Section Focus]
According to the Dongwu Securities Gas Industry Research Report, Europe and the US rose from week to week, while Asian spot and Chinese LNG ex-factory and landed prices rose. As of 2026/10/09, the US HH/European TTF/East Asian JKM/Chinese LNG factory/China LNG arrival price changed +2.6%/+9.9%/+0.9%/+1.9%/+8% to 0.7/6.5/6.2/4.3/6.3 yuan/square meter; high European gas price fluctuation was +9.9% month-on-week. 2026/10/1-2026/10/7, European gas supply -18.4% month-on-week to 58,382 GWh; domestic LNG factory price changed +1.9% month-on-week. From January to August 2026, China's natural gas imports fell 4.5% year on year to 110 billion square meters.
On the price side, in July 2026, the average domestic liquid gas import price was 4,816 yuan/ton, +9.6% month-on-month, +27.2%; the average domestic gas-gas import price was 2,435 yuan/ton, +0.3% month-on-month and -4.8% year-on-year; and the overall average price of natural gas imports was 3,671 yuan/ton, +6.4% month-on-month and +15.1% year-on-year.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the degree of impact on the three major natural gas indices is ranked: JKM (Asia) > TTF (Europe) > HH (US). Overall, it has a direct impact on JKM and TTF, affecting 13% of Asia's supply and 3% of Europe's supply. It has an indirect effect on HH.
Major Hong Kong stock products: Kunlun Energy (00135), Xinao Energy (02688), China Resources Gas (01193).
[Individual Stock Mining]
Haier Smart Home (06690): Officially announced that Sun Yingsha has become a global brand ambassador, and orders at home and abroad are growing rapidly
On October 13, Haier officially announced that Sun Yingsha has become a global brand ambassador. The two sides will join hands to embark on a new journey of smart living under the theme of “Aisha AI at Home”. The company continued to buy back A shares in large amounts, at a cumulative cost of 2.29 billion yuan. Revenue for the first half of 2026 was $152.115 billion, -2.8%; net profit to mother was $10.316 billion, -14.3%; Q2 revenue was $78.428 billion, +1.36% YoY; and net profit to mother was $5.665 billion, +21.78% YoY.
Comment: As a leading figure in women's table tennis, Sun Yingsha has always been very popular, which is expected to stimulate sales. Haier is the benchmark for high-end white electricity in China. The Casadi market accounts for over 40% of refrigerators over 10,000 yuan, and high-end washing machines dominate. The company's domestic orders are fully produced during peak season, and high-end orders are prioritized for production. Casadi terminal shipments increased by double digits, accounting for 75% of packaged products, +26.5pct compared to the previous year. The retail sales ratio of Haier's mid-range Seeker and Mailang high-end packages was +44% year-on-year in 2026. High-end products raised the overall gross profit margin and hedged the industry's price war. Haier ranks first in the global smart home sales industry. There are 130 million+ registered smart home users worldwide, 13 million + monthly active apps, and more than 20 million overseas smart users. The Tri-Wingbird Scenario brand's daily activity exceeds 10 million. With the integration of home improvement+home appliances, the customer unit price and gross margin are far higher than that of single products; the gross margin of package orders is 8-12 pcts higher than that of a single product, which has become the core gripper for increasing profits.
Overseas emerging markets are growing rapidly. Factories in Southeast Asia, India, Egypt, and the Middle East and Africa are at full capacity; overseas production capacity will increase net by 2 to 2.5 million units in 2026. Brazil has implemented a full range of high-end smart home appliances, opening up room for growth in Latin America. L4 autonomous smart appliances were launched, and unmanned household appliances equipped with AI Eye 2.0 were launched in batches. New smart washing and kitchen robot terminal retail sales were +500% year-on-year in 2026, and AI hardware became the second growth curve. High-end Casadi orders of 10,000 yuan or more are full, accounting for 45% +; washing machines are scheduled to be produced at a high load simultaneously, and package orders continue to increase. Air conditioning is the core of the peak season. Domestic sales orders are plentiful, and the entire factory is in full production.
Overseas orders are divided regionally. Local factories are accepting incremental orders. The second phase of refrigerators in Egypt and the Pune base in India received orders at full production. In 2026Q4, Egypt added 300,000 refrigerator production capacity, and locked in advance orders for autumn and winter in the Middle East and Africa. The company's multiple factories in Southeast Asia, India, and the Middle East were put into operation in 2026-2027. The proportion of overseas production was further increased to avoid global trade barriers. The share of overseas revenue is expected to exceed 52%, and the emerging market will become the second growth engine. The company continues to repurchase shares in large amounts, and the repurchased shares are intended to be used in subsequent equity incentive plans. The dividend ratio was raised to 55% in 2025 (48% in 2024), and the target dividend for the next three years was raised to 60%, which is a recognition of confidence in the company's future development prospects and intrinsic value.