Stellantis (BIT:STLAM) shares moved higher after the European Union and China reached a “shared understanding” intended to curb Chinese hybrid and plug in hybrid exports into Europe over the next four years.
For Stellantis, the EU China agreement arrives against a tougher backdrop, with the share price down 15.9% over the past month and 59.6% year to date. The 1 year total shareholder return has declined 53.1%, and the 3 year total shareholder return has fallen 75.8%. The latest bounce therefore reflects shifting expectations around competitive pressure rather than a firm reversal of longer term momentum.
Spot opportunities that are reshaping the auto trade equation by scanning our curated 184 high quality undervalued stocks alongside Stellantis after this EU China hybrid export shift.After a sharp slide in Stellantis and a sudden relief rally, the gap between the €3.93 share price, a €5.61 analyst target and even wider intrinsic value estimates raises a simple issue: where does fair value actually sit now?
Most Popular Narrative: 57% Undervalued
Against a €3.93 share price, the most followed narrative on Stellantis points to a much higher fair value and focuses squarely on what the underlying industrial engine can sustainably earn rather than what the factories are worth on paper.
The assets are easy to see. The deterioration in the financial position is harder to ignore. At the end of 2023, Stellantis had €29.5 billion of Industrial net financial assets. By the end of 2024, the figure had fallen to €15.1 billion and by the end of 2025 to €6.7 billion. June 2026 showed €10.0 billion, but Stellantis had just raised almost €5 billion through perpetual hybrid securities. Remove those proceeds and the underlying Industrial financial position was closer to €5.1 billion.
See why 5 investors see Stellantis as 57% undervalued.
According to FRAGMENTS, the narrative grounds its €9.20 fair value in a view that Stellantis can eventually sustain industrial profitability above the current 1.6% framework, with cleaner warranty charges, healthier dealer inventories and positive industrial free cash flow once reset costs run off, rather than any reliance on book value or plant counts.
Result: Fair Value of €9.20 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, this hinges on Stellantis lifting industrial profitability from a low 1.6% framework, and on keeping warranty provisions and reset cash outflows from dragging harder for longer.
Find out about the key risks to this Stellantis narrative.
Next Steps
Sentiment around Stellantis is clearly divided, with both meaningful risks and tangible positives on the table. Act promptly and weigh the evidence yourself using 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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