J.P. Morgan Chase said in the research report that it will raise the forecast price of Brent spot crude oil for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 by 5 US dollars/barrel. The current forecast price for the fourth quarter is 105 US dollars/barrel; the forecast price for the first quarter of next year is 100 US dollars/barrel. Analyst Martijn Rats and others said that although exports from the Middle East have increased, overall market supply, including supplies to local refineries, is still far below last year's level. Furthermore, onshore crude oil inventories have continued to decline and have been at a low level for many years. The number of oil tanker attacks has increased again. In the past two weeks, there were about 11 incidents per week, compared to less than 4 per week in July and August. “Attacks on Saudi infrastructure have increased. Crude oil exports continue, but related uncertainties remain high.” Higher freight rates also supported Brent oil prices. “Compared to long-distance transportation of crude oil, which still needs to be used to meet demand, Brent crude oil has a cost advantage of 10 to 15 US dollars/barrel to northwest Europe.”

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