According to Woofun AI, Morgan Creek Capital founder Mark Yusko clearly defined in the “New Era Finance” podcast that BTC's long-term reasonable valuation anchor is $105,000, and emphasized that the market has officially switched from the seller-led distribution phase to a fund-raising model that gradually raises the highs and lows.
Judging from the technical pattern and cycle pattern, the double bottom structure formed earlier this year around $60,000 marked a substantial decline in selling pressure as trading volume continued to expand. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, based on the experience of the past three cycles, the length of time of the BTC bear market from high to low strictly follows the 364-day block count pattern rather than a calendar year. According to this deduction, early October is likely to constitute the final low of this round, after which the market will experience a limited retracement, and the price will rebound again after hitting around $70,000. Using Metcalfe's law, Yusko calculates the value of BTC based on the network user base and connection density. Currently, the reasonable range given is about $105,000, and it is expected that the annualized rate of return will stabilize at 7% to 8% as the penetration rate increases.
Notably, in October of last year, he assessed a reasonable value of $85,000 to $90,000, when the actual high of BTC had soared to $125,000, a deviation he attributed to irrational prosperity driven by human psychology. He determined that prices would slowly return to a reasonable value over the next year and a half until the 2029 halving event triggered a new round of cyclical surges.
At the macro level, Yusco directly links BTC's four-year halving cycle to the profitability pressure caused by the halving of miners' earnings, and divides the investor base accordingly. He pointed out that as assets expand, exponential growth is no longer mathematically feasible, but BTC's market capitalization is expected to rise to $15 trillion within the next five to ten years, which is half of his estimated total gold market value of $30 trillion. The central variable underpinning this bullish logic is currency depreciation: the US issued a total of $10 trillion in debt in the 245 years prior to the founding of the nation, and added an additional $10 trillion of debt of the same size in the last five years.
In this context, due to its fixed supply characteristics, BTC, like gold, has become an anti-inflation tool that can exist without debt. Yusco's personal holding strategy also confirms this logic. He holds STRC (STRC.US) preferred shares of the strategy company (MSTR.US), uses its high yield of 12% to cover daily expenses, while positioning BTC and gold as long-term value storage carriers spanning decades.