According to Woofun AI, legendary macro investor Paul Tudor Jones set a pessimistic tone for the 2027 US stock market, mainly due to a surge in AI company IPOs. He believes that with the influx of new shares into the market, investors' views on risky assets, including Bitcoin, may fundamentally change, and this structural change is reshaping the underlying logic of the market.
The underlying reason is the reversal of the market support mechanism. In the four-year bull market, buybacks and mergers and acquisitions effectively reduced stock supply, but this force is fading away. In contrast, possible IPOs or additional offerings by Anthropic and OpenAI, recent SpaceX (SPCX.US) financing deals, and stock sales to build artificial intelligence infrastructure will boost supply significantly.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this supply shock was similar to the late 1990s and early 2000s, when a number of initial public offerings and stock lockdowns ended, creating favorable conditions for shorters.
Facing the most negative environment since 2002, Jones said on CNBC that he plans to keep short positions throughout the year given the limited value of the investment. Although he believes the AI-driven rebound may last a year or two, he remains cautious about current stock price levels. Bitcoin, by contrast, has a fixed supply of only 21 million units, in stark contrast to the anticipated surplus of new shares. Jones pointed out that the supply of gold is increasing every year, and Bitcoin, as a decentralized asset, has the greatest value in terms of scarcity, and its long-term oil position also confirms his strategy of seeking return channels other than stocks.
The risk, however, is that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with risky assets. Once there is a large-scale sell-off in the market, the price of Bitcoin may also fall as a result. The final trend is full of uncertainty, and depends largely on the specific response of institutional investors and retail investors to the stock market decline. This will be a key variable that determines whether it can actually play a hedging role.