The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that the car market entered the traditional “Golden Nine” peak season in September. The release of demand for household car purchases during the school season, continuation of trade-in policies, and intensive sales of new cars led to a recovery in terminals. However, it was suppressed by the historical peak base of 2.241,000 vehicles set by rush to install before subsidies declined in the same period last year. The year-on-year decline was still large, and the overall demand release was relatively cautious. Looking ahead to October, the “Silver Ten” peak season is compounded by year-end impulses. The supply of new cars continues to be abundant, and exports are expected to continue to increase, jointly driving the month-on-month increase in sales in October; structurally, rising oil price fluctuations suppress fuel vehicle repair, and the penetration rate of new energy sources is expected to continue to reach new highs. Sales are expected to pick up gradually in October, and overall pick up moderately compared to September, but demand releases are concentrated and short, and there is strong downward pressure after the holiday season.
The main views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:
In September, the car market entered the traditional “Golden Nine” peak season. The release of demand for household car purchases during the school season, the continuation of the trade-in policy, and intensive sales of new cars led to a recovery in terminals. However, it was suppressed by the historical peak base of 2,241,000 vehicles set by rush to install before subsidies declined in the same period last year. The year-on-year decline was still large, and the overall demand release was relatively cautious. From September 1 to 27, the national passenger car market retailed 1.258 million vehicles, -29% year-on-year, +1% compared with the same period last month; a cumulative total of 12.973 million units have been sold since this year, -22%. From September 1 to 27, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 1.474 million vehicles, -30% year-on-year and -12% compared to the same period last month. Among them, 827,000 new energy passenger vehicles were retailed, -20% year-on-year, and the retail penetration rate reached 65.7%; passenger car manufacturers nationwide wholesale 1.032 million new energy vehicles, -11% year-on-year, compared to -7% in the same period last month, and the wholesale penetration rate reached 70%.
Recently, independent brands have successively released sales reports for September. Zero Run has held a high position of 100,000 vehicles for three consecutive months. Xiaomi and Xiaopeng have joined hands to reach the level of 40,000 vehicles, and Hongmeng's wisdom and ideals have recovered month-on-month.
BYD sold 463,600 units in September, +16.99% year-on-year and +5.28% month-on-month, continuing the upward trend month by month. Geely sold 292,200 vehicles in September, a double increase over the same period last year. Of these, Extreme Krypton sold 37,200 units, +103.85% year over year. Overseas sales volume was 106,700 units, +162% year-on-year, surpassing 100,000 units for 4 consecutive months. Changan Deep Blue sold 30,200 units in September, a slight increase over the previous month; Qiyuan sold 46,500 units; orders for the newly launched Qiyuan Q06 exceeded 35,000 units on the first day; Avita delivered 8,183 units. Great Wall sold 114,900 units in September, a year-on-year decline and a slight increase from month to month; Zero Run delivered 105,700 units in September, with monthly sales exceeding 100,000 units for three consecutive months, ranking first in the delivery list of new forces; Ideal delivered 31,800 units in September, -6.29% YoY, -15.56% month-on-month, and delivered a total of 100,000 vehicles in the third quarter, +1.7% month-on-month; Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 37,500 vehicles in September, -29.15% year-on-year, and -10.95% month-on-month. 41,300 vehicles delivered, ring Compared to +5%, GX delivered 7,224 units in September, and MONA L03 production capacity continued to climb, delivering more than 10,000 units in September; Xiaomi delivered more than 40,000 units in September, and the new extended range model Xiaomi Pengcheng delivered more than 10,000 units in the first month, becoming a core increase; NIO delivered 37,400 vehicles in September, +7.7% compared to the previous month. Among them, the NIO brand delivered 21,300 vehicles, +55.3% year over year, the Ledao brand delivered 8,763 vehicles, 42.5% year over year, and the Firefly brand delivered 7,327 vehicles, +26.9% year over year.
Looking ahead to October, the “Silver Ten” peak season is compounded by year-end impetus. The supply of new cars continues to be abundant. Domestic models such as the 2026 Ideal i6 are leading the market. New cars from brands such as Ideal, Zero Run, Xiaopeng, and Smart appeared at the Paris Auto Show. Exports are expected to continue to increase, jointly driving up sales in October; structurally, rising oil prices suppress fuel vehicle repair, and the new energy penetration rate is expected to continue to reach new highs. Sales are expected to pick up gradually in October, and overall pick up moderately compared to September, but demand releases are concentrated and short, and there is strong downward pressure after the holiday season.
Bi-weekly market review
In terms of the molecular sector, passenger cars, sales and services, commercial vehicles, motorcycles, and other parts rose and fell by +0.80%, +0.07%, -0.91%, -3.55%, and -3.57%, respectively.
In terms of valuation, the price-earnings ratios for sales and services, motorcycles and others, spare parts, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles were 25.32x/24x/23.13x/21.99x/15.04x, respectively. The net market margins for motorcycles and other parts, commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles, sales and services were 3.13x/2.41x/1.92x/1.4x/1.27x, respectively.
Risk warning: 1. Risk of automobile sales falling short of expectations; 2. Risk of policy effects falling short of expectations; 3. Risk of increased industry competition; 4. Risk of mass production of humanoid robots falling short of expectations.