The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bank of China International released a research report stating that China's Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies for some products, and the value-added tax export rebate rate for new energy vehicles will be reduced from 13% to 9%, effective from April 1, 2027. The bank believes that this move continues the gradual withdrawal of the “three new models” such as photovoltaics and batteries from policy support and the direction of market-driven growth.
The bank pointed out that the current drop in NEVs from 13% to 9% is the same as the first round of PV and battery adjustments, but the transition period is more relaxed. Car companies have nearly six months to prepare, which will help readjust export pricing, optimize order structures and localized production capacity layout, and ease short-term pressure. The scope of the adjustment covers passenger and commercial new energy vehicles, which is broader than the “passenger car first” expected by the market; fuel vehicles are not within the scope of tax rebates and cuts, which helps reduce the pressure on traditional car companies.
The bank expects NEV export growth to slow down rather than an absolute decline; if car companies completely absorb their own costs, gross export profits will be pressured. In the medium term, lower tax rebates will also push car companies to shift from exporting vehicles made in China to overseas production and localization. Leaders with strong competitiveness, better cost control and overseas manufacturing capabilities will be easier to adapt and consolidate or accelerate the industry.
According to the export structure, Chery Automobile (09973), Geely Automobile (00175), Great Wall Motor (02333), etc. are relatively buffered due to the high share of fuel vehicles and hybrids; pure new energy exporters such as Xiaopeng Automobile-W (09868) are under direct pressure, but leaders can still mitigate the impact through retail repricing, supply chain sharing, and speeding up overseas factory construction.