The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that short-term market turnover is shrinking and fluctuating downward, and it is recommended to select targets with good performance and reasonable valuations. On the one hand, we continue to be optimistic about AI-related capital expenditure investment opportunities throughout the year, focusing on segments with strong industry trends, good performance expectations, good short-term card positions, and companies that are expected to accelerate and improve operations; on the other hand, we focus on segment leaders that significantly drive improvements in business trends and relatively low stock prices.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
[1.] Machinery industry background and outlook
High-end equipment is autonomous and controllable: Localization of core equipment is the foundation for the independent rise of the industry. Only by breaking through the bottleneck of core high-end equipment can the true autonomy and industrialization of the downstream industry be achieved; the general trend of industrial upgrading: in the digital wave and energy transformation, industrial interconnection/AI+ physical intelligence applications have continuously improved social efficiency, the use of new energy sources has continuously reduced social costs, and China is ushering in a comprehensive range of industrial upgrading; export development from point to point: As the Chinese industry continues to develop, outstanding manufacturing enterprises in the industry have moved from import substitution to export substitution, with global competitiveness and acceleration Export development.
[II.] Research Framework: Grasp Strong Alpha Company
In order to better explore the business model and core competitiveness of listed companies in the machinery industry, the bank mainly divides machinery companies into 4 types based on similar business models and business characteristics: upstream core components companies, midstream specialized/general equipment companies, downstream product companies, and service companies. Upstream core component companies: Strong alpha attributes, are upstream of midstream specialized/general equipment companies. They are usually R&D-driven, have core underlying technology, rely on technical strength or business model innovation to build high competitive barriers, form a better competitive pattern, so that the company has certain bargaining power, generally has strong profitability, and continues to open up growth ceilings through category upgrade/expansion and downstream field expansion. Such companies are all worthy of attention. Midstream specialized/general equipment companies: High beta attributes, supplying products to downstream customers for industrial production. Machinery companies are in the middle of the industrial chain, and bargaining power is relatively low. The focus is on companies with import substitution opportunities in high-growth industries or steady growth industries. The company level focuses on the company's technical strength and high-quality customer binding situation. Usually, the industry is fiercely competitive, and the stronger the stronger the industry. Leading companies are preferred to recommend promising new energy (photovoltaic/lithium battery/wind power/nuclear power) and industrial automation (industrial robot/industrial control/laser) industries. Downstream product companies: Products have usage functions and are directly used or operated by humans. The industry space is larger. Generally, downstream application fields are extensive, and downstream customer companies that are more scattered have strong bargaining power. Focus on companies with import substitution opportunities in high-growth industries or steady growth industries. The company level comprehensively considers the company's technology+product+brand+channel, selects leading companies, and recommends cultivating fine molecular industries such as diamonds and general testing and measuring instruments. Service companies: Earn revenue by providing services. They usually have steady demand, good cash flow, long-term steady growth in the industry, leading companies have a significant first-mover advantage, prefer segmented track leaders with large track space, and recommend testing services and other industries.
[3.] October Investment Views: Focus on High-Performing Stocks
Core view: Short-term market turnover shrinks and fluctuates downward. It is recommended to select targets with good performance and reasonable valuations: on the one hand, continue to be optimistic about AI-related capital expenditure investment opportunities throughout the year, focusing on companies with strong industry trends, good short-term card positions, and expected accelerated operation; on the other hand, focus on segment leaders where Alpha significantly drives improvements in business trends and relatively low stock prices. Technology direction: Focus on the direction of high growth rate and high certainty in the industry, optimistic about focusing on segments such as [semiconductor equipment], [AI liquid cooling and upstream equipment], [optical communication instruments & equipment] and [3D printing], focusing on [Feirongda (300602.SZ)], [Hanzhong Precision Machinery (002158.SZ)], [Qiao Feng Intelligence (301603.SZ)] [Genesis (300083.SZ)], [Photonics Technology (300480.SZ)] [Silicon Electric Co., Ltd. (301629.SZ),] [Ulide ( 688628.SH), [Dingyang Technology (688112.SH)], [Opt (688686.SH)], etc. Alpha individual stocks: Preferred from the bottom up: good report quality & sufficient cash flow on accounts, with clear and good growth or an accelerating positive trend; leading industry segment companies with significant alpha structures that achieve steady, moderate and positive growth through increased market share, export growth, product upgrades, or category expansion. It is recommended to focus on [Baichu Electronics (688188.SH)] [Yiheda (301029.SZ)] [Huazu Testing (300012.SZ)] [Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH)] [Yizhi Secret (300415.SZ)] [Jinyi Industrial (601002.SH)], etc.
[4.] The machinery sector fell 8.53% in September, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.75 pcts
The machinery sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.75 pcts in September. As of September 30, 2026, the machinery industry (Shenwan classification) index fell 8.53% in September, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.75 pcts. Looking at the entire industry, the machinery industry ranked 29th out of 31 industries (Shenwan classification) in terms of growth and decline in September.
[5.] The valuation level of the machinery sector continued to decline in September
As of September 30, the TTM price-earnings ratio of the machinery industry was about 41.09 times, and the net price-earnings ratio was about 3.21 times, continuing to decline from the end of August.
[6.] The machinery sub-industry rose less and fell more in September
Judging from the 17 machinery sub-industries classified by the bank (each sub-industry is weighted by equal weight), the machinery sub-industry rose and fell a lot in September 2026. Shipbuilding and offshore engineering and elevator equipment ranked high, rising 1.36%/1.14% respectively. Judging from individual stock performance, the top five companies with monthly gains in September 2026 were: Shen Gu Group (601091.SH) /Electric Cosimile (301689.SZ) /Century Digital (920229.BJ) /Kaida Heavy Industries (920025.BJ) /Tencent Precision (920298.BJ).
[7.] The manufacturing PMI index rebounded to the expansion range of 50.10% in September
(Data from the National Bureau of Statistics, September 30) The manufacturing PMI index for September was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from month to month, and rebounded for two consecutive months. Looking at the historical situation, the manufacturing PMI continued to maintain a boom range for 17 consecutive months from March 2020 to August 2021. Since October 2021, it has fluctuated around the 50% boom and dry line, and has been below the boom and dry line for 3 consecutive months from October to December 2022. It returned to the expansion range from January to March 2023, and the manufacturing boom level rebounded, declined slightly from June to October, continued to rise slightly from October 2023 to February 2024, continued to be above the boom and dry line from March to April, and fell below the boom and dry line again from May to September 2024. Starting in September, the manufacturing PMI began to rise, and returned to the expansion range in October-December. The year 2025 was volatile. In September 2026, the boom level continued to pick up, production and demand sides continued to expand, the price index continued to rise, and the PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry remained in the expansion range.
[8.] Month-on-month change in steel/copper/aluminum price index in September +0.07%/-0.33%/-0.56%
(Wind September 30 data) The steel/copper/aluminum price index changed +0.07%/-0.33%/-0.56% in September. Prices of steel/copper/aluminum, the main raw materials in the machinery industry, have continued to rise since 2016 to the highest level in history in mid-2021, and have since adjusted. Currently, copper/aluminum prices have been in a high position for the past five years. Steel price/copper/aluminum price index change since 2022 -30.02%/+49.49%/+14.18%; steel/copper/aluminum price index change -18.62%/+72.73%/+35.73%; steel/copper/aluminum price index change since 2024 -18.37%/+70.92%/+37.19%; steel/copper/aluminum price index change -5.45%/+66.40%/+27.32% since 2025.
[9.] Machine tools: From January to August 2026, metal-cutting machine tool production increased 8.80% year-on-year
(Data from the National Bureau of Statistics, September 15) From January to August 2026, the production of metal cutting machines was 584 million units, an increase of 8.80% over the previous year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of metal cutting machines increased from 755 million units to 868,300 units in 2015-2025, with a CAGR of 1.41%; the output of metal forming machines fell from 304 million units to 17900 units, with a CAGR of -5.16%. Metal cutting machine tool output in August 2026 was 73,000 units, up 14.10% year on year. The cumulative output in January-August was 584 million units, up 8.80% year on year; in August, the cumulative output of metal forming machine tools was 16 million units, up 8.70% year on year, and the cumulative output in January-August was 125 million units, up 7.80% year on year.
[10.] Industrial robots: production increased 29.00% year-on-year from January to August 2026
(Data from the National Bureau of Statistics, September 15) From January to August 2026, the production of industrial robots was 729,400 units, an increase of 29.00% over the previous year. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2015-2025, China's industrial robot production increased from 33,000 units to 773,300 units, and the CAGR reached 37.08%. In August 2026, the production of industrial robots was 96,200 units, up 34.60% year on year; the cumulative output in January-August was 729,400 units, a year-on-year growth rate of 29.00%.
[11.] Construction machinery: excavator sales increased 24.2% year-on-year from January to August 2026
(Data from China Construction Machinery Industry Association, September 8) Sales of 19716 excavators in August 2026, up 19.3% year on year; sales volume from January to August was 191,557 units, up 24.2% year on year. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association on major excavator manufacturers, 19716 excavators of various types were sold in August 2026, an increase of 19.3% over the previous year. Among them: domestic sales volume was 7,986 units (including 184 electric excavators), up 3.92% year on year; exports were 11,730 units (including 60 electric excavators), up 32.7% year on year. From January to August 2026, a total of 191,557 excavators were sold, an increase of 24.2% over the previous year. Among them: domestic sales volume was 9,4619 units (including 411 electric excavators), up 17.4% year on year; exports were 9,6938 units (including 257 electric excavators), up 31.8% year on year. Loaders: In August, the sales volume was 10,832 units, up 14.7% year on year; in January-August, the sales volume was 104,658 units, up 25.8% year on year. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association on major loader manufacturers, 10,832 loaders of various types were sold in August 2026, an increase of 14.7% over the previous year. Among them: domestic sales volume of 5,421 units (including 3056 electric loaders), up 13.6% year on year; exports of 5411 units (including 476 electric loaders), up 16% year on year. From January to August 2026, a total of 104,658 loaders of various types were sold, an increase of 25.8% over the previous year. Among them: domestic sales volume was 52,587 units (including 30,480 electric loaders), up 17% year on year; exports were 5,2071 units (including 2,575 electric loaders), up 36.1% year on year.
[Investment advice]
AI infrastructure: liquid cooling equipment - Genesis (300083.SZ), Qiao Feng Intelligent (301603.SZ), Neway CNC (688697.SH); optical communication instruments & equipment - Ulide (688628.SH), Dingyang Technology (688112.SH), Puyuan Precision (), Opt (Dubai), JFC (); Refrigeration & liquid cooling - Feirongda (300602.SZ), Shenling Environmental (301018.SZ), blue 688337.SH 688686.SH 688531.SH Cisco Technology (300433.SZ); Combustion Engine-Jerry Co., Ltd. (002353.SZ), Wanze Co., Ltd. (000534.SZ), Yingliu Co., Ltd. (603308.SH).
Semiconductor equipment: Precision Measurement Electronics (300567.SZ), Silicon Electric Co., Ltd. (301629.SZ), Qiangyi Co., Ltd. (688809.SH), Hanzhong Precision Machinery (002158.SZ), and Jingzhida (688627.SH).
Alpha shares: Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ), Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), Baichu Electronics (688188.SH), Yiheda (301029.SZ), Huaxi Testing (300012.SZ), Radio and Television Metrology (002967.SZ), Yizumi (300415.SZ), Yirui Technology (688301.SH), and Haomai Technology (002595.SZ).
Humanoid robots: Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), Feirongda (300602.SZ), Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ), Lansi Technology (300433.SZ), Green Harmonic (688017.SH).