Thanks to the expected recovery brought about by the “618 recovery+implementation of the medical and aesthetic matrix”, the stock price of Giant Biotech (02367) showed a clear upward trend from July 10 to July 29 this year. The range's stock price increased by 23.11%, and pulled the stock price back above HK$30.
Although in the next three months, due to multiple factors, its stock price returned to the previous increase, now that the “Double Eleven” campaign is about to begin, the eyes of more investors are once again focusing on this leading Hong Kong stock medical and beauty company.
After regaining the previous increase, it entered a low recovery phase
The Zhitong Finance App observed that since July 10 of this year, Giazi Biotech's stock price has shown an “inverted V” trend.
During the upward phase from July 10 to July 29, Giazi Biotech's stock price showed a three-stage trend on the market to accelerate the market. Among them, during the 4 trading days from July 10 to 16, the company's stock price increased by a cumulative total of 13.8%. At the same time as the stock price rose, Giazi Biotech's stock trading volume reached 8.2226 million shares on July 10, 1.71 times the average of the previous 5 days, and continued to sell to 9.032,700 shares on July 16, showing an overall healthy trend of sharp rise in volume and price.
Although there was a period of contraction and consolidation from July 17 to 28, the company's stock price retracted less within this range, and the stock price fluctuated only in a narrow range between HK$29.00 and HK$29.60; then, on July 29, Giants Biotech's stock price jumped high and eventually closed up 7.27%, and hit a phased high of HK$31.40 in the day's session, completing this three-stage acceleration period.
Within the above range, Giants Biotech not only achieved a sharp rise in volume and price on the market, but its technical momentum and trend strength also increased simultaneously: while the MACD indicator completed a gold cross below the zero axis and appeared in a bullish arrangement above the zero axis; the ADX index rose all the way from 25 on July 10 to 43.7 on July 29, which indicates that within this range, the trend intensity of the stock has upgraded from “tradable” to a “strong trend”.
At the same time, the company's stock price was basically running on the BOLL line during the upward phase, and the BOLL bandwidth showed a significant expansion of 24.6%, showing the characteristics of the upward trend in the stock price volatility of Giazi Biotech and the acceleration of the trend during this period.
However, a sharp rise in a short period of time will inevitably be accompanied by short-term overheating of stock prices. During this period of stock price growth of Giants Biotech, the RSI index went straight from the neutral range of 52.8 to the overbought area of 82.1, showing that the short term was clearly overheated; while the KDJ index rose after the low gold fork, the J value declined after hitting 110 around July 16, when the first phase of volume was launched, indicating that there may be backlash demand in the market at that time. As Giants Biotech's stock price reached the end of the acceleration period of this round of rising prices on July 29, technical signals of short-term overheating became the trigger for its pullback.
Furthermore, in terms of industry and individual stock fundamentals, although the stock price increase of Giant Biotech was impressive previously under the recovery of the medical and aesthetic industry and the positive catalysts of the 618 war report, it is undeniable that the medical and aesthetic industry problems of “stricter regulations, more rational consumption, and increased supply competition” have not been completely reversed. Combined with high growth expectations, the 26H1 financial report revised down the 26H1 financial report, causing phased market sentiment fluctuations. Giant Biotech's stock price will return to the previous increase within the next three months.
According to the Zhitong Finance App's observation, under the joint guidance of technology and fundamentals, Giant Biotech's stock price fell in volume in mid-August and entered the main decline period. It did not recover until October 7, when the intraday bottom of HK$22.40 was reached. At this point, the company's stock price was already higher than before, and the maximum retracement reached 26.58%.
However, as the “Double Eleven” campaign approached, market sentiment also began to move from unanimity to divergence. Some investors began to trade the benefits that this second major consumer activity after the “618” campaign may bring to Giants Biotech.
Can “Double Eleven” reignite market sentiment?
Although the stock price of Giant Biotech continued to be in a downward range after July 30, its volume closed up 4.47% on October 9, and the trading volume increased 2.5 times the average for the previous 5 days. Even though it fell back down by 3.27% the next day, the daily trading volume was still about 2.05 times the average for the previous 5 days.
However, this signal of volume and price may be sending an important message to the market, that is, Giazi Biotech's current low level differences in the market may be gradually widening. An important variable that triggered this phenomenon was the recent “Double Eleven” campaign.
As mentioned above, the recovery in the “618” campaign report was an important factor in supporting the upward logic of Giazi Biotech's stock price from July 10 to July 29. According to the 618 promotion report disclosed by the company, Kefu Mei's online omni-channel GMV increased by more than 25% year over year, and Clekin's full-cycle GMV increased by more than 30% year over year.
According to the analysis of the Huachuang Securities Research Report, even though it was affected by the decline in performance, comprehensive considerations still gave Juzi Biotech the 2026 cosmetics business 15 times PE, or 29 billion yuan in market value; in addition, the potential medical and aesthetic market value increased by 6 billion yuan, for a total target market value of 35 billion yuan. As a result, Huachuang Securities gave Juzi Biotech a target price of HK$38.01 at the time.
From a valuation perspective, after more than 2 months of falling stock prices, the PE valuation at this time was only 12.78 times, which is already 13.73 times lower than the industry average of 13.73 times PE, which also reserves room for possible subsequent stock price increases.
Among the highlights of the “Double Eleven” campaign, in addition to observing the campaign's sales report data, investors also need to pay attention to Juzi Biotech's new S+ grade ultra-transparent stick in the Kefumei Focus series launched in April this year. The product's self-operated GMV surpassed 30 million yuan in the first week of launch, breaking 100 million yuan in 100 days of launch, and the agency estimates that it will contribute about 200 million yuan in revenue for the whole year.
This “Double Eleven” sales performance may verify to some extent whether it can be used as a “strategic relay single product” after Giant Biotech's single collagen stick, and then directly determine whether the market believes that the company can switch from “relying on a single explosive product” to a “product matrix-driven” logic.
In addition to this, expectations of a fundamental inflection point are also driving investors on and off the market to gamble on the medium- to long-term market conditions of Giants Biotech.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that with the approval of the world's first injectable recombinant collagen and sodium hyaluronate complex solution in January, the world's first neck line filling crosslinked recombinant type III collagen implant was approved in June of this year. Coupled with the 753 collagen injections that were officially launched in June this year, Giazi Biotech currently holds 4 Class III medical device (881144) registration certificates. And whether it can be proven to investors in subsequent financial reports that it has moved from the “registration certificate story” to the “commercial cashing out period” and start a second growth curve for the medical and aesthetic business will also become an important factor affecting the future valuation of Giant Biotech.