Judging from the overall historical situation, winter winds in East Asia are often weak during the ripe period of El Niño. The possibility of high winter temperatures in our country has increased, and some parts of the south are also prone to excessive precipitation. However, this is just a statistical trend; it's not the same every time. Whether the center of the sea temperature anomaly is east or west, how fast the incident develops, and cold air activity in the north during the same period will affect the outcome. Therefore, the “tendency to be warm” cannot be described as a uniform warm winter throughout the country. Our country's cold and warm winters also depend on how cold air from the north accumulates and where it invades our country from south. The strength of the high pressure in Siberia, the location of the polar vortex, and the circulation situation over Eurasia will all affect cold air activity. At the same time, Arctic sea ice, Eurasian snow cover, and sea temperatures in other seas may also participate. Even if the average temperature of the season is high, once circulation adjustments occur, which provide conditions for cold air to move far south, drastic cooling may occur in a short period of time. For example, the strong cold wave in January 2016 occurred against the backdrop of strong El Niño. For the public, we must not only focus on the words “warm winter,” but also pay more attention to the cold tide and high wind warnings in the upcoming forecast; in particular, the south must prevent rain, snow, and freezing that may occur after cold air meets sufficient water vapor, while the north should pay attention to the effects of strong cooling, high winds, and freezing snowfall. Transportation, agricultural production, energy security, etc. cannot be relaxed due to the judgment that the overall temperature is warm.
Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago
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Judging from the overall historical situation, winter winds in East Asia are often weak during the ripe period of El Niño. The possibility that our country will experience high winter temperatures has increased, and some parts of the south are also prone to excessive precipitation. However, this is just a statistical trend; it's not the same every time. Whether the center of the sea temperature anomaly is east or west, how fast the incident develops, and cold air activity in the north during the same period will affect the outcome. Therefore, the “tendency to be warm” cannot be described as a uniform warm winter throughout the country. Our country's cold and warm winters also depend on how cold air from the north accumulates and where it invades our country from south. The strength of the high pressure in Siberia, the location of the polar vortex, and the circulation situation over Eurasia will all affect cold air activity. At the same time, Arctic sea ice, Eurasian snow cover, and sea temperatures in other seas may also participate. Even if the average temperature of the season is high, once circulation adjustments occur, which provide conditions for cold air to move far south, drastic cooling may occur in a short period of time. For example, the strong cold wave in January 2016 occurred against the backdrop of strong El Niño. For the public, we must not only focus on the words “warm winter,” but also pay more attention to the cold tide and high wind warnings in the upcoming forecast; in particular, the south must prevent rain, snow, and freezing that may occur after cold air meets sufficient water vapor, while the north should pay attention to the effects of strong cooling, high winds, and freezing snowfall. Transportation, agricultural production, energy security, etc. cannot be relaxed due to the judgment that the overall temperature is warm.
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