The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong Securities released a research report saying that the Double Eleven promotion is about to begin, focusing on the catalytic effects of the big promotion on the sector. The long-term care sector has many product innovations and high domestic product organization efficiency, and growth attributes are still obvious. Currently, the sector's valuation and holdings are low. It is recommended to select products and brands from the bottom up, grow rapidly, and have resilient targets.
Cathay Pacific Haitong Securities's main views are as follows:
Platform: Shorter cycles and simplified rules. Looking at the activity cycle, the 26-year Double Eleven platform node lags behind 25: JD launched all categories in October 12 (October 9 in '25), Douyin launched on October 15 (October 9 in '25), Tmall began pre-sale on October 15, and the full cycle was about 30 days from October 15 to November 13 (October 14 to November 14 in '25 for a total of 32 days), and the two waves of spot were merged into a single wave. Spot sales started at 8 p.m. on the 20th. Judging from the campaign rules, various platforms continued their discount strategy. Taobao and Tmall maintained the official discount; Xiaohongshu cancelled the full discount and changed the full discount to 85% off the entire market. JD focused on the official direct discount and retained the full cross-store discount (30 for every 200, 50 in 2025).
In terms of brand cooperation, the number of leading brands broadcast has generally increased, and many new domestic products have been broadcast and promoted. As of October 9, the TOP3 L'Oréal, Perea, and Lancôme had released 22, 17, and 14 respectively, a change of -1, +1, and +2 compared to last year. Among high-end foreign investors, Lancôme, Helena, and Aquamarine Mysteries increased by 2, and Shiseido increased by 1; the number of domestic brands sold by Fumei and Mao Geping increased by 3 and 2, respectively; Perea, Winona, and Marumi each increased by 1; Lin Qingxuan distributed large single camellia essence oil; and Shizentang and Han Shu each decreased by 2. Judging from the newly released products, most of them were new products of the year, presenting two main lines: iterative upgrades of major single products (Reimei Collagen Stick Series Extension Mask, Perea Source Series Multi-Use Cream) and new line expansion (Mao Geping Friday Skin Mask, Huahua co-branded).
In terms of the price mechanism, price promotion for core products, simplification of giveaways, and specification upgrades go hand in hand, and price competition pressure still exists in the industry. Judging from the marketing mechanism, the price of the top single products in China was generally stable in 2026. The prices and giveaways of core items such as Perea Ruby Essence, Morning and Night A Set, Mao Geping Caviar Mask, Ke Mei Collagen Patches, and Collagen Sticks were all consistent with last year, with some items being slightly reduced in price (such as Perea Double Face Mask dropped from 369 yuan to 349 yuan). The adjustments were mainly based on the giveaway structure. The giveaway side showed a trend of “simplification+specification upgrade”: the variety was reduced to the same model, and the specifications were upgraded from a small sample to a medium sample, replacement, or even formal wear. For example, L'Oréal purple iron eye cream was changed from a small combination to a regular 30ml package, and the OLAY small white bottle was changed to a drop in price after the purchase price dropped. The bank believes that formal giveaways are significantly more valuable than small samples, and the price competition in the industry is still under pressure. Internal segmentation of foreign brands: Shiseido Red Waist raised the list price, LAMER essence water giveaways decreased, Helena Green Aquarius price dropped from 1,760 yuan to 1,580 yuan, while Lancôme Little Black Bottle, Estée Lauder Pink Water, and HR Black Bandage increased giveaways.
[Investment advice]
The Double Eleven promotion is about to begin. Focus on the promotion's catalytic effects on the sector. The long-term care sector has many product innovations and high domestic product organization efficiency, and growth attributes are still obvious. Currently, the sector's valuation and holdings are low. It is recommended to select products and brands from the bottom up, grow rapidly, and have resilient targets. Recommended:
High-growth targets with strong fundamentals: Mao Geping (01318), Langzi (002612.SZ), Lin Qingxuan (02657), Dengkang Dental (001328.SZ), and Runben Co., Ltd. (603193.SH);
Leading targets with clear improvement expectations: Pelaea (603605.SH), Giant Biotech, Shanghai Jiahua, and Northbell;
Expectations are low, and margins are expected to improve in the future, Bethany, Sihuan Pharmaceuticals, Shangmei Co., Ltd., Freda, Huaxi Biotech, and Aimeike.
[Risk Reminder]
Industry sentiment continues to decline; brand-side competition intensifies, domestic brands are being squeezed by foreign brands; the company's incubation results for new products and brands fall short of expectations.