The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that demand for artificial intelligence (AI) is currently driving up US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation by about 45 basis points. About half of this is a real impact. The rest comes from statistical measurement biases, and it is expected that the impact will peak to 50 basis points by the end of 2026, and then fall back to 10 basis points by the end of 2027. The bank estimates that the impact on overall PCE inflation was about 5 to 10 basis points higher during the same period.
The bank analyzed four transmission channels: one is that AI boosts software and accessory inflation. However, it is estimated that most of this category's contribution to core PCE inflation of about 20 basis points is a measurement bias, which exaggerates the impact of the sharp rise in accessory prices, and software prices are not adjusted in accordance with quality improvements; second, the cost pressure of electronic components drives up the price of consumer electronics such as computers, and is estimated to contribute a total of about 15 basis points until the end of next year; the third is that data centers use electricity to drive up electricity prices, which is estimated to contribute 5 to 10 basis points to core inflation through corporate energy costs, and to overall electricity bills. Inflation contributed an additional 5 to 10 Individual basis points; fourth, the rise in the price of industrial metals used in data center construction is estimated to drive up core inflation by about 5 basis points, but there has been no significant spillover effect on construction workers' wages.
The bank concluded that the impact of AI demand on inflation is significant but moderate. It is still largely due to measurement deviations and is close to its peak; it is expected to fall next year, mainly due to sector analysts expecting a significant slowdown in memory and computer price growth. Even if the full AI impact is calculated at face value and assumed to continue next year, the bank still anticipates that core PCE inflation will clearly fall back to the 2% target next year, as tariffs and Iran's energy shock account for 0.9 percentage points of the remaining 1 percentage point exceeding the standard.