The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to Antech statistics, the transaction price of n-type compound feed (rod-shaped silicon) was 43,000 yuan/ton this week, which was the same; the transaction price range for n-type granular silicon was 4.00 to 410,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 40,300 yuan/ton, which was flat from month to month. The domestic polysilicon market has been running smoothly this week, and the volume is basically the same as last week. Production reduction plans of various enterprises have entered the implementation stage one after another since October. The supply-side contraction effect has gradually become apparent, but it will take time to observe the intensity and sustainability of production cuts. Downstream procurement continues at the pace of immediate demand, and the market is awaiting more clear supply and demand signals.
According to statistics from the Silicon Industry Branch, domestic polysilicon production in September was 120,400 tons, and during the same period, silicon wafer production was 55.27 GW, corresponding to 94,400 tons of silicon demand. In that month, an additional inventory of 24,000 tons (including import and export) was added. By the end of September, the polysilicon industry had inventories of about 572,000 tons. Domestic polysilicon production is expected to drop to about 105,000 tons in October, and the corresponding monthly demand for silicon materials is about 86,000 tons, down from September. It is expected that the market will continue to accumulate stocks.
Overall, supply-side contraction began to be reflected in October, but monthly supply and demand are still in a relaxed pattern, inventories continue to accumulate, and the sustainability of price stabilization still depends on the resonance between the execution of production cuts and the recovery in downstream demand. In the later stages, we need to pay attention to the actual implementation progress of production adjustments by various companies, the pace of downstream inventory replenishment, and the driving effect of the recovery in silicon wafer prices on silicon demand.
