According to Woofun AI, the US 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 5.3%, hitting its peak since 2002. This macro-variable directly reshaped the asset competition pattern: as Bitcoin, which does not generate any endogenous returns, must now play head-on against investment products with a yield of more than 5% and is guaranteed by the government, its no-interest attribute is particularly vulnerable in the face of low risk and high return benchmarks.
The underlying reason is that the core driving up yield is not a slowdown in economic growth, but rather a combination of inflationary pressure and debt problems. This structural change has significantly raised the valuation threshold for risky assets. Since Bitcoin provides neither interest nor dividends, investors can only rely on capital gains to profit; in contrast, US Treasury bonds provide returns of more than 5% with almost zero risk of default, forcing crypto assets to provide higher expected returns to attract capital. Judging from valuation logic, high yields raise interest rates to discount future earnings, putting pressure on the current value of cryptocurrencies that lack cash flow.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, capital is pouring into the bond market at an accelerated pace. As of September, bond ETF (TLT.US) raised a record of 469 billion US dollars. Since 2026, the 10-year US Treasury yield has increased by a cumulative total of about 1.2 percentage points, and hit a high of 5.34% at the beginning of this month.
Institutional views further confirm the persistence of market pressure. Dan Evasin, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), stated in an interview with the Financial Times that the yield is expected to rise further to 6%. He warned that once the 5.5% mark is broken, both the credit market and the stock market may face significant weakness.
At the same time, AI companies' debt issuances are competing with US Treasury bonds for limited liquidity, increasing the diversion of funds at the fund level. As investors re-examine traditional 60/40 portfolio allocations, although market liquidity can mitigate interest rate shocks in the short term, it is difficult for this valuation squeeze effect caused by rising risk-free interest rates to quickly subside in the long run.
Bitcoin's asset appeal is undergoing a fundamental revaluation. Its price trend is increasingly tied to the US bond market, and any asset that does not generate income must continue to outperform the 5% treasury yield in order to maintain its comparative advantage. Against the backdrop of high yields on treasury bonds, the cost of holding interest-free assets will actually rise, and investors' demand for risk premiums will be more stringent. This indicates that the valuation logic of crypto assets in a macro-high interest rate environment has entered a new serious stage.