According to Woofun AI, during the Asian trading session on October 13, the price of Bitcoin once fell below $81,000, then quickly recovered from the $8.3 million mark within a few hours. Meanwhile, South Korea's KOSPI index closed down 5.46%, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell sharply by about 7% and 9% to 10% in the intraday period, respectively. The market quickly defined this divergence between crypto assets and traditional technology stocks as a “decoupling” phenomenon.
However, if the observation window is extended to one week, the price image shows a completely different divergence from the flow of underlying capital. This short-term price resilience conceals the deep contradiction of the continued withdrawal of institutional capital.
Judging from the financial microstructure, the net outflow of spot ETFs is the core yardstick for judging the real supply and demand of the market. From October 5 to 9, the US Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) recorded a total net outflow of approximately US$681 million, setting the record for the largest weekly outflow since June. Among them, FBTC (FBTC.US) products under Fidelity led the decline, with weekly outflows reaching US$380 million.
Although the Bitcoin price showed resistance in the $8.3 million to $8.4 million range during the same period, share redemptions forced the fund to sell underlying assets to meet liquidity needs, revealing a lack of synchronization between price and capital. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, perpetual contract settlement data further confirms the deleveraging characteristics: within 24 hours before and after the early morning of October 13, about 800 million US dollars of positions in the entire market were forcibly closed. Among them, long positions accounted for 86%, and the total number of unclosed contracts shrank simultaneously.
This backlash driven by bears, rather than additional spot purchases, explains why Bitcoin can recover briefly when South Korean stocks plummeted due to chip valuation pullbacks. The liquidation structure indicates that the bearing capacity around $8.1 million mainly stems from passive liquidation of leveraged accounts. After last week's huge outflow, the ETF had another outflow of about $65.4 million on October 12, and mixed daily data of about $110 million was not available until October 13.
This series of data shows that institutional pipelines continue to lose blood, and single-day price fluctuations cannot reverse the basic fact that capital is weak.
Marginal changes in institutional behavior also send a signal of caution. Strategy (MSTR.US) revealed on October 12 that it purchased only 250 bitcoins between October 5 and 11, with an average price of $86,194, and a total cost of about $21.5 million.
This buying volume hit a weekly low in the year, in stark contrast to the $192.4 million fund used to repurchase preferred stock STRC (STRC.US) during the same period, which was close to nine times the purchase amount. This operation is more like maintaining the “always buying” market narrative rather than confirming a substantial cyclical inflection point. On October 13, in an interview with Bloomberg at DC Fintech Week, Saylor reiterated that the Bitcoin bear market had ended at just under $60,000, is expected to return to above $100,000, and gave an annualized growth forecast of 20% to 30% over the next few years.
However, as the head of the largest corporate coin hoarder, his optimistic remarks are facing serious challenges from index rules. MSCI (MSCI.US) began consulting on “non-operating companies” in August, and feedback was due on September 30. Results are expected to be announced no later than October 16. According to the simulation, companies that focus on financial assets, such as Strategy (MSTR.US) and Metaplanet, may be removed from the Global Investability Index.
This rule change is directly related to the flow of passive funds. Once removed, tracking funds will be forcibly sold in accordance with the contract. J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.US) estimated in 2025 that Strategy (MSTR.US) faced potential passive selling pressure of about $2.8 billion as a result. Saylor sees the $80,000 range as the starting point for a new bull market, while the MSCI (MSCI.US) questionnaire defines it as the tipping point for an exponential identity crisis.
The key to future market trends is the game between macro data and passive selling pressure schedules. Bitcoin is currently still stuck in the $8.1 million to $8.4 million box, far below its all-time high. The September CPI data released on October 14 will be the first hurdle on the upper edge of the test box. Analysts expect a year-on-year increase of 3.6% to 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August. If the core reading is cold, bears' recovery may push the price up to $86,000 to $87,000; if the data is off, the $8.1 million or even $80,000 support level will once again be pressured.
It is worth noting that even if the MSCI (MSCI.US) results come to an end on October 16, the actual passive selling pressure will not actually be implemented until the November index adjustment. Therefore, the market needs to pay close attention to whether the MSTR (MSTR.US) premium over Bitcoin narrows, and whether the daily flow of subsequent ETFs can continue to be positive. These two signals will determine whether this round of rebound is only a mechanical repair within the box, or whether the financial side has re-established the bullish advantage.