Key Points
JPMorgan's food inflation scenario centres on fertilizer disruption and a developing El Niño, not empty shelves.
Potash isn't the fertilizer JPMorgan flags as most exposed, but it's part of the crop-yield equation, and Canada produces roughly 30% of the world's supply.
Buffalo Potash (TSXV: BUFF) finished drilling all five wells at its Disley Initial Production Module on September 25. Drilling isn't production.
Brine circulation is the next test, with first production targeted for Q1 2027.
An impending “food crisis” makes for a compelling headline. JPMorgan’s actual warning is more interesting.
While they may not be predicting empty grocery shelves in 2027, recent analysis from the banking sector titan has exposed a more complicated risk: fertilizer disruptions, geopolitical conflict and a developing El Niño could squeeze crop production and push food prices higher.
Nothing in the global food system happens in a vacuum. One disruption can set off another, with fertilizer shortages rippling through crop production and eventually reaching food prices.
For Canadian investors, that connection matters. Canada produces roughly 30% of the world’s potash, making it a major player in a fertilizer market tied directly to crop yields and food supply.
What JPMorgan actually said about a 'food shortage'
JPMorgan is warning that fertilizer-supply disruptions, geopolitical conflict and a developing El Niño could combine to push global food inflation higher into 2027. Its May analysis focused on nitrogen fertilizer and the vulnerability of supply chains around the Persian Gulf.
A later August analysis put global food inflation at roughly 5% in the first half of 2027, up from 2.8% a year earlier. A separate September forecast from the Insititute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) also points to higher food-inflation pressures in 2027.
The outlook isn’t universally bearish, either. USDA’s September Food Price Outlook forecasts U.S. grocery prices to rise 1.8% in 2027, down from the initial 2.1% forecast. That makes JPMorgan’s warning less a prediction of runaway food inflation than a scenario worth watching if fertilizer, geopolitical or weather-related disruptions intensify.
JPMorgan also points back to 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine restricted access to potash and phosphorus fertilizers, contributing to higher costs and lower crop output.
The mechanics still matter. It is essential to farmers that fertilizer arrives on time, as a missed planting period can disrupt the crop growth, yield, and production. JPMorgan points to higher fertilizer costs encouraging lower application, which can reduce yields and put upward pressure on food prices.
Where potash fits for Canadian investors
While JPMorgan didn’t directly flag potash; the primary element of interest is Nitrogen. But potash is part of the same food-production equation. Potassium helps crops reach their yield potential and handle stress, according to the Potash Development Association, so it doesn't replace nitrogen but can help farmers get more from the land they already have.
Canada sits at the centre of this market. The USGS estimates Canada produced about 15 million tonnes of potash in 2025, out of roughly 49 million tonnes globally. Canada also supplied about 79% of U.S. potash imports between 2021 and 2024, while the U.S. relied on imports for an estimated 92% of its potash consumption in 2025.
Buffalo Potash’s progress so far
One Canadian developer trying to add supply is Buffalo Potash, which is developing the Disley project in Saskatchewan. Its Initial Production Module (IPM) aimed to produce 125,000 tonnes of soluble-grade potash a year, with first production targeted for the first quarter of 2027.
On September 25, Buffalo announced that it had completed the third and final horizontal well at the IPM. That brings the project to five completed wells: two vertical and three horizontal. The company says each horizontal well achieved approximately 95% contact with the target clay seam, with an 11-stage packer system installed.
As the infrastructural development wraps, the focus shifts from system installation to translating that momentum into commercial production. Buffalo’s Horizontal Line-Drive method uses a central injector well to send sodium chloride brine into the mining plane, with producer wells intended to recover potassium chloride-rich brine. Next come completions, well clean-up and brine circulation, which is where Buffalo starts finding out whether the system works as designed.
The risks
Buffalo says the method has not been operational at commercial scale and that successful drilling does not guarantee successful brine circulation or commercial production. Its IPM production decision is not based on a feasibility study of its economic and technical viability; in fact, no mineral reserves have yet been established at Disley.
The broader development plan assumes construction at Disley West and Disley East will start in July and October 2027, with operations beginning in July and October 2029. Those dates depend on positive construction decisions and further technical and economic work. For investors, the key question is whether progress at the IPM can translate into a commercially viable operation at larger scale.
Most followed narrative
The most-followed Simply Wall St community narrative puts Buffalo's fair value at CA$1.06 per share, with the project’s success depends on the commercial outcome of the Horizontal Line-Drive method and whether Buffalo can scale the approach beyond the first module.
This is one community author's view, and it rests on the milestones above. What happens from here could determine whether the gap closes between the author's fair value estimate and the current Buffalo Potash stock price. As such, it might be worth watching the following:
Whether well completion and clean-up proceed as planned.
Whether the packers communicate across the horizontal wells.
Results from initial brine circulation.
Progress toward first production, targeted for Q1 2027.
The feasibility study for Disley East and Disley West.
How future developments play out and whether it dilutes shareholders.
JPMorgan isn’t saying the world is running out of potash. It’s highlighting how fertilizer disruption, geopolitical conflict and climate risks put pressure on agricultural production and food prices.
For Buffalo investors, the story is much more specific: can a Saskatchewan potash resource and a different mining approach turn this convergence of supply, technology, and timing into production?
Disclaimer
This article was written independently by the author, without issuer input or approval. Buffalo Potash Corp. has a marketing services agreement with Simply Wall St. Details on compensation and other important information can be found in the disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this narrative.
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Simply Wall St analyst Chrissy Paradis and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned. This article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.