Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Alcoa reports after market close, meaning Day 0 captures anticipatory trading before results are released, while Day +1 reflects the market's first full session to digest the actual numbers.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | -$1.73 (-3.56%) | $1.51 (3.11%) | -$2.87 (-6.13%) | $3.10 (6.62%) |
| 2026-04-16 | +$0.03 (+0.04%) | $2.66 (3.78%) | -$4.79 (-6.80%) | $4.50 (6.39%) |
| 2026-01-22 | -$0.73 (-1.14%) | $2.62 (4.09%) | -$0.93 (-1.47%) | $5.03 (7.97%) |
| 2025-10-22 | -$1.58 (-4.24%) | $2.08 (5.59%) | +$4.49 (+12.59%) | $3.86 (10.84%) |
| 2025-07-16 | +$0.07 (+0.25%) | $0.79 (2.77%) | +$0.83 (+2.91%) | $1.45 (5.08%) |
| 2025-04-16 | +$0.39 (+1.58%) | $1.10 (4.46%) | -$1.75 (-6.98%) | $1.59 (6.34%) |
| 2025-01-22 | +$0.17 (+0.44%) | $1.17 (3.03%) | -$1.43 (-3.69%) | $1.89 (4.87%) |
| 2024-10-16 | +$0.77 (+1.86%) | $0.68 (1.65%) | -$1.72 (-4.09%) | $2.93 (6.96%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 1.64% | 3.56% | 5.58% | 6.88% |
Alcoa has exhibited significant volatility around earnings releases, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 1.64% and Day +1 move of 5.58%. The Day +1 reaction has been particularly pronounced, with the stock moving an average of 6.88% in range during the session following earnings. Recent reports show escalating volatility, with the July 2026 release producing a -6.13% Day +1 move and April 2026 generating a -6.80% decline. The most dramatic reaction came in October 2025, when the stock surged +12.59% the day after reporting. The pattern suggests investors should brace for substantial price swings, with post-earnings sessions typically delivering moves well above the stock's normal daily volatility.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 10/16/26 (DTE 2) |
| Expected Move | $2.01 (5.03%) |
| Expected Range | $38.07 to $42.09 |
| Implied Volatility | 105.89% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of 5.03% for this earnings release, which sits between the historical Day 0 average of 1.64% and the Day +1 average of 5.58%. This suggests options traders are anticipating volatility in line with recent history, though the 5.03% implied move is notably lower than the 6.88% average Day +1 range, potentially offering value for volatility buyers if the stock delivers a reaction consistent with its recent pattern.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on Alcoa currently leans bullish, with an average recommendation of 4.00 (Buy) across 11 analysts. The breakdown shows 6 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Moderate Buys, 4 Holds, 1 Moderate Sell, and 0 Strong Sells. The consensus price target stands at $61.00, with a high estimate of $80.00 and a low of $48.00.
Sentiment has improved over the past month, with the average recommendation rising from 3.82 and one analyst upgrading from Strong Sell. The shift reflects growing confidence in the aluminum cycle recovery and Alcoa's positioning to benefit from improved pricing dynamics. One analyst moved from Hold to Strong Buy during this period, while the Strong Sell rating was eliminated entirely.
The $61.00 consensus target implies 52.2% upside from the current price of $40.08, suggesting analysts see substantial value even after the recent decline. The wide range between the $48.00 low and $80.00 high target reflects divergent views on the sustainability of aluminum prices and Alcoa's ability to maintain margin expansion through the cycle. The bullish case centers on continued pricing strength and operational leverage, while bears point to potential demand softness and the stock's historical cyclicality.
Part 4: Technical Picture
Alcoa enters earnings in a decisively bearish technical posture. The Barchart Technical Opinion currently registers a 100% Sell signal, unchanged from last week but deteriorated from the 80% Sell reading a month ago. The intensification of the sell signal reflects persistent downward pressure as the stock has failed to find support.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (100% Sell): Maximum bearish signal indicates severe near-term downward momentum with no technical support
- Medium-term (100% Sell): Equally negative intermediate-term reading confirms the weakness extends beyond just short-term volatility
- Long-term (100% Sell): Maximum sell signal across the longer timeframe suggests a deeply entrenched downtrend with no signs of stabilization
Trend Characteristics: The signal exhibits Strong strength with the Strongest directional conviction, indicating an unambiguous and powerful downtrend heading into the earnings release.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $41.65 | 50-Day MA | $47.18 |
| 10-Day MA | $42.14 | 100-Day MA | $52.14 |
| 20-Day MA | $42.90 | 200-Day MA | $57.65 |
The stock is trading at $40.08, positioned below all major moving averages: the 5-day ($41.65), 10-day ($42.14), 20-day ($42.90), 50-day ($47.18), 100-day ($52.14), and 200-day ($57.65). This complete breakdown below all trend indicators represents a technical red flag, with the stock down more than 30% from its 200-day moving average. The descending pattern of moving averages confirms a persistent downtrend with lower highs at each timeframe. From a technical perspective, the setup is highly cautionary heading into earnings—the stock would need a substantial positive catalyst and follow-through to reverse this deeply negative momentum structure. Any disappointment in the results or guidance could accelerate the decline, while even a strong beat may face resistance at the nearby moving averages that now represent overhead supply.