Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
First Horizon reports before the market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first trading session reaction to results, while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | -$0.78 (-3.03%) | $0.80 (3.11%) | +$0.46 (+1.84%) | $0.71 (2.85%) |
| 2026-04-15 | -$0.08 (-0.33%) | $0.69 (2.85%) | -$0.19 (-0.79%) | $0.45 (1.84%) |
| 2026-01-15 | +$0.39 (+1.62%) | $0.66 (2.74%) | -$0.32 (-1.31%) | $0.65 (2.68%) |
| 2025-10-15 | -$2.17 (-9.43%) | $3.71 (16.12%) | -$0.91 (-4.36%) | $1.14 (5.47%) |
| 2025-07-16 | +$0.44 (+2.07%) | $0.67 (3.16%) | +$0.55 (+2.54%) | $0.58 (2.68%) |
| 2025-04-16 | -$0.28 (-1.59%) | $1.07 (6.09%) | -$0.18 (-1.04%) | $0.38 (2.20%) |
| 2025-01-16 | -$0.08 (-0.37%) | $1.24 (5.82%) | +$0.25 (+1.17%) | $0.50 (2.35%) |
| 2024-10-16 | +$0.68 (+4.07%) | $0.68 (4.10%) | +$0.05 (+0.29%) | $0.36 (2.10%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 2.82% | 5.50% | 1.67% | 2.77% |
Historical price behavior shows FHN typically experiences moderate volatility around earnings, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 2.82% and Day +1 move of 1.67%. The most recent quarter (July 2026) saw a -3.03% decline on Day 0 followed by a +1.84% recovery on Day +1, suggesting initial negative reaction that partially reversed. Notably, the October 2025 report triggered an outsized -9.43% Day 0 decline, significantly above the historical average and likely reflecting specific concerns at that time. Excluding that outlier, the stock's earnings reactions have been relatively contained, with most moves falling in the 1-3% range. Investors should anticipate moderate single-digit percentage swings in either direction based on how results and guidance compare to expectations.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 10/16/26 (DTE 2) |
| Expected Move | $0.90 (3.97%) |
| Expected Range | $21.77 to $23.57 |
| Implied Volatility | 69.75% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of 3.97% for this earnings release, which sits between the historical Day 0 average of 2.82% and the broader Day 0 range average of 5.50%. This suggests options traders are anticipating a moderately elevated reaction compared to typical recent quarters, though well below the extreme volatility seen in October 2025.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic stance on First Horizon, with a consensus rating of 3.70 (between Hold and Buy) and an average price target of $26.92, implying 18.7% upside from the current price of $22.67. The 23 analysts covering the stock include 7 Strong Buys, 2 Moderate Buys, and 14 Holds, with no sell ratings, reflecting broad confidence in the company's positioning despite some reservation about near-term catalysts.
Price targets range from a low of $24.00 to a high of $30.00, with the mean target suggesting meaningful appreciation potential if FHN can execute on its earnings growth trajectory and demonstrate sustainable margin expansion. However, analyst sentiment has deteriorated over the past month, with the average recommendation slipping from 3.73 to 3.70 and one analyst moving from Hold to a more cautious stance. This subtle shift suggests some analysts are adopting a wait-and-see approach heading into the release, possibly reflecting concerns about the sustainability of recent outperformance or broader regional banking headwinds.
The consensus implies that while analysts see value in FHN's franchise and growth prospects, the stock needs to deliver on earnings expectations and provide constructive guidance to justify the upside embedded in current price targets.
Part 4: Technical Picture
First Horizon enters earnings in a technically challenged position, with the Barchart Technical Opinion showing an 88% Sell signal, a significant deterioration from the 8% Buy signal just one month ago and the 56% Sell signal last week. This rapid shift reflects mounting technical pressure as the stock has broken below key support levels.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal indicates near-term momentum has turned decisively negative heading into the release
- Medium-term (100% Sell): Bearish reading confirms weakness across the intermediate timeframe with no technical support
- Long-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests the longer-term trend has also deteriorated, though less severely than shorter timeframes
Trend Characteristics: The signal strength is rated as "Good" with "Strongest" direction, indicating high confidence in the bearish technical setup heading into earnings.
The stock is trading at $22.67, below all major moving averages: the 5-day ($22.98), 10-day ($23.10), 20-day ($23.26), 50-day ($24.28), 100-day ($24.71), and 200-day ($24.36). This complete breakdown below moving average support reflects sustained selling pressure and suggests the stock has lost technical momentum across all timeframes.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $22.98 | 50-Day MA | $24.28 |
| 10-Day MA | $23.10 | 100-Day MA | $24.71 |
| 20-Day MA | $23.26 | 200-Day MA | $24.36 |
The 50-day moving average at $24.28 represents the nearest significant resistance level, now 7.1% above the current price, while the 200-day at $24.36 serves as a longer-term benchmark that has shifted from support to resistance. The technical setup is decidedly cautionary heading into earnings, with the stock needing a significant positive surprise to reverse the current downtrend and reclaim moving average support. Any disappointment on earnings or guidance could accelerate the decline given the lack of nearby technical support, while a strong beat would need to be substantial enough to overcome the bearish momentum reflected in the uniformly negative technical signals across all timeframes.